[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 01 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Oct 2 09:31:27 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.6 0000UT probable lower West Pacific
M1.0 1452UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.5 1918UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X7.1 2220UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 245/195
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Oct was R3, with the largest
flares being X7.1 at 2220 UT and then M7.5 at 0000 UT from AR3842
(S15E18, beta-gamma, delta), which is currently the most large
and complex region on the Sun. There are currently seven numbered
sunspots on the disk. The cluster of sunspots near the central
meridian in the southern hemisphere have all grown rapidly in
the past day. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance
for R3 over 02-04 Oct.
While no Earth directed CMEs have been observed in available imagery,
it cannot be confirmed yet whether the X7 flare was associated with any
CME.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 01-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 02-04 Oct,
with a chance of S1 on 02-Oct.
The solar wind environment was at background levels
on 01-Oct. The solar wind speed ranged between 400 to 450 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -6
nT. The solar wind environment is generally expected to be near
background levels over 02-04 Oct. A CME from 30-Sep and 01-Oct
may have a weak influence to the Earth on 03-Oct but it is not
expected to be significant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22100222
Cocos Island 3 21110211
Darwin 5 22100213
Townsville 8 32100224
Learmonth 5 23100222
Alice Springs 5 22100223
Gingin 5 22110222
Canberra 4 21000213
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 21100222
Hobart 3 11100212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 12000111
Casey 16 24531223
Mawson 11 34321131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 4111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 5 G0
03 Oct 5 G0
04 Oct 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 02-04 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 01-Oct were
generally normal. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 02-04 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct 160
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 150 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
03 Oct 150 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Oct 150 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 109 was issued on
1 October and is current for 2-4 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 01-Oct were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced. Scintillation was observed between 1148 to 1230
UT in Darwin and Weipa. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced over 02-04 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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