[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 September 24 issued 2331 UT on 30 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Oct 1 09:31:29 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 214/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Sep was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3841 (N12E21, beta), AR3842 (S15E32, gamma)
and AR3843 (S07E03, beta) have all grown rapidly in the past
day. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for
R2 over 1-3 Oct.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 30-Sep. None of the CMEs have
been analysed to be significantly geoeffective. A CME observed from
1412 UT associated with a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant
may have a weak glancing blow on 3-Oct, however this is not expected
to be significant.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 30-Sep.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 1-3 Oct.
The solar wind environment was generally near background levels
on UT day 30-Sep. The solar wind speed ranged between 390 to
547 km/s and is currently near 400-450 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -11 nT. The
solar wind is expected to be near background levels over 1-3 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 32110222
Cocos Island 5 32110221
Darwin 5 32100222
Townsville 7 32111223
Learmonth 6 32210222
Alice Springs 6 32110222
Gingin 6 32100322
Canberra 6 32100223
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 32210222
Hobart 6 32200222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 32101122
Casey 22 46422232
Mawson 27 64322254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 15 3233 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 8 G0
02 Oct 5 G0
03 Oct 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Sep. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in Antarctica. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 1-3
Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 30-Sep were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 1-3 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 154
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 150 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Oct 145 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
03 Oct 145 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 107 was issued on
30 September and is current for 30 Sep to 2 Oct. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted
values to 25% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced over 1-3 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 62700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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