[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 25 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Oct 26 10:31:34 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0733UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 209/160
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 215/165 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Oct was R1 due to an M1
flare from region AR3873 (S08E63, beta-gamma). This region is
part of a group of three regions currently located in the solar
southeast quadrant together with AR3869 (S13E40, beta-gamma)
and AR3872 (S13E56, beta-gamma-delta). These regions are the
more significant of the on disk solar regions. Solar regions
AR3869 and AR3872 exhibited minor development in the past 24
hours. A minor solar region in the northeast solar quadrant AR3874
(N25E25, beta) is showing growth and small region AR3876 (S01E37,
beta) is also growing. There are currently eleven numbered sunspots
on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or decay. An erupting solar prominence was observed in GONG H-alpha
imagery from 25/1529UT on the southwest solar limb centred at
solar latitude S30. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 with
a chance for R3 over 26-28 Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 25-Oct. S0, with the chance of S1 solar
radiation conditions are expected over 26-28 Oct with a generally
increasing event risk. The solar proton flux measured by the
US GOES satellite is currently slightly elevated following the
recent R3 flare on the southeast solar limb. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed in the past 24 hours. The erupting southwest
limb prominence produced a slow faint CME which is not considered
significant. The solar wind environment on UT day 25-Oct was
slow and steady. The solar wind speed ranged from 304 to near
335 km/s and is currently near 304 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -4 nT. The IMF Bz component was orientated
mildly northwards for most of the UT day. A glancing blow CME
shock arrival from the R3 southeast limb flare observed on 24-Oct
is expected at 26/1500UT +/- 12 hours on 26-Oct. Modelling suggests
a moderate increase in wind speed of up to 600km/s following
the shock arrival. A more minor weak glancing blow from a CME
associated with a recent solar filament eruption on 23-Oct may
also arrive on 26-Oct, though this is low confidence.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 21000001
Cocos Island 2 1112000-
Darwin 2 2100200-
Townsville 1 2100100-
Learmonth 2 21100002
Alice Springs 0 1000000-
Gingin 1 2100000-
Canberra 0 1100000-
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11000001
Hobart 1 21000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 1100001-
Casey 13 4442100-
Mawson 6 4220100-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3531 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 30 G1-G2
27 Oct 18 Initially G1 then declining to G0
28 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 71 was issued on 24 October
and is current for 26-27 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 25-Oct.
G1-G2 conditions are expected on 26-Oct from an expected glancing
blow arrival of the CME associated with a recent R3 flare, currently
expected from 1500 UT on this day. Disturbed conditions will
likely continue into 27-Oct with G1 periods expected early in
the UT day, then declining to G0.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
27 Oct Normal Fair Poor-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 25-Oct were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be initially normal on 26-Oct, then becoming degraded over
26-27 Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
27 Oct 100 Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 121 was
issued on 24 October and is current for 26-27 Oct. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 25-Oct
were near predicted values to 30% enhanced. Strong enhancements
were observed during local night hours for the northern Australian
region. Spread F was observed during local night hours at Hobart
and during the interval 25/1400-1500UT at Darwin. Equatorial
scintillation was observed at Darwin during the interval 25/1259-1330UT.
MUFs are initially expected to be near predicted values to 15%
enhanced on 26-Oct. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced
during local night hours on 26-Oct for the southern Australian
region. MUFs may become 15% depressed in the southern Australian
region on 27-Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity on 26-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list