[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 November 24 issued 2353 UT on 28 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Nov 29 10:53:31 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 214/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Nov was at the R0 with multiple
C-class flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk, growth analysis and identifying unnumbered
regions is complex due to an SDO outage. AR3905 (S07W15, beta-gamma)
and AR3906 (S16W14, beta-gamma-delta) remain the largest and
most magnetically complex regions with AR3906 showing some growth
over the UT day. AR3910 (N16E44, beta-gamma) has developed in
complexity. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity on 29-Nov to 01-Dec is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels with a chance of R2. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S0 level on 28-Nov. S0 conditions are expected on
29-Nov to 01-Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed on
UT day 28-Nov. The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Nov was steady,
mostly ranging between 320 and 390 km/s and is currently near
360 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -5 nT. The anticipated CME impact on 28-Nov has not arrived
yet. An enhancement in solar wind speed is possible on 29-Nov
due to the late arrival of this CME. The solar wind speed is
expected to be at background levels or be declining towards background
levels on 30-Nov to 01-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Cocos Island 2 21110011
Darwin 3 21110021
Townsville 4 22111021
Learmonth 4 22111022
Alice Springs 2 12100021
Gingin 3 22110011
Canberra 2 22100011
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 22100011
Hobart 2 22100010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 12000010
Casey 19 45442131
Mawson 11 44221122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 20 G0-G1, chance G2
30 Nov 15 G0, chance G1
01 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with G1 conditions observed
at Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G2 are
expected on 29-Nov due to the possible late arrival of a CME
first observed on 25-Nov. G0 conditions with a chance of G1 are
expected on 30-Nov and G0 conditions are expected on 01-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 28-Nov were
mostly normal to fair with worse conditions observed in the first
half of the UT day and at high latitudes. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be normal to fair on 29-30 Nov due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions
are expected on 01-Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
30 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
01 Dec 135 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Nov were near predicted monthly values. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 29-Nov to
01-Dec, with depressions of 5-10% possible on 29-30 Nov due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 52600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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