[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 November 24 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Nov 28 10:30:45 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1246UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 225/175
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Nov was at the R1 level
due to an M1.0 flare at 27/1246UT. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk, growth analysis
and identifying unnumbered regions is difficult due to an SDO
outage. AR3905 (S07W02, beta-gamma) and AR3906 (S16W01, beta-gamma-delta)
are the largest and most magnetically complex regions, AR3905
showed size growth over the UT day whilst AR3906 shrank slightly.
AR3907 (S19W35, beta) also showed size growth. The one M-class
flare of the day was produced by AR3901 (S06W57, alpha). No other
sunspot regions showed nota Solar activity on 28-30 Nov is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels with a chance of R2. Solar radiation storm
conditions were at the S0 level on 27-Nov. S0 conditions are
expected on 28-30 Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed
on UT day 27-Nov. A filament lift off is visible from 27/1859UT
at around S15E30 in H-Alpha and GOES SUVI imagery. No associated
CME is visible in available coronagraph imagery, further analysis
will be performed when more imagery becomes available. The solar
wind speed on UT day 27-Nov was steady, ranging between 330 to
380 km/s and is currently near 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase on 28-Nov due to an anticipated impact from a CME
first observed on 25-Nov. The solar wind speed is expected to
be elevated on 29-Nov with a decline towards background levels
over 29-30 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Cocos Island 1 11110001
Darwin 3 21111012
Townsville 5 11121113
Learmonth 3 21111012
Alice Springs 3 11111112
Gingin 4 21111112
Canberra 4 11211112
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12211112
Hobart 4 12211112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 01110002
Casey 21 45532223
Mawson 12 33331233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 3200 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 22 G1, chance of G2
29 Nov 12 G0, chance of G1
30 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 74 was issued on 27 November
and is current for 28 Nov only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 27-Nov. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with G1 conditions observed at Casey. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 28-Nov, with a chance of G2 due to the arrival
of a CME first observed on 25-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 29-Nov, G0 conditions are
expected on 30-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 27-Nov were
mostly normal to fair with worse conditions observed in the first
half of the UT day and at high latitudes. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be normal to fair on 28-29 Nov due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions
are expected on 30-Nov Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
30 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 139 was issued on
26 November and is current for 26-28 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 27-Nov were near predicted
monthly values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 28-30 Nov, with depressions of 5-10% possible on 29-Nov
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 57400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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