[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 November 24 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Nov 27 10:30:47 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 222/172
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Nov was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3905 (S07E13, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has shown decay in its intermediate
spots. AR3906 (S16E14, beta) has similarly shown decay in its
intermediate spots. AR3907 (S19W20, beta) and AR3908 (N13E44,
beta) have exhibited spot growth. Two unnumbered regions recently
appeared on the solar disk near S11W32 (beta) and N09W40 (beta),
both of which have shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1 level, with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed on UT day 26-Nov. A CME was observed on UT
day 25-Nov, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 25/2136UT.
This CME is associated with an M1.9 flare at 25/2054UT. Modelling
indicates this CME is geoeffective, with an arrival at Earth
on 28-Nov at 12:00UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed on UT
day 26-Nov declined, ranging from 345 to 420 km/s and is currently
near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background
levels on 27-Nov, then increase in 28-Nov due to the arrival
of a CME first observed on 25-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21111012
Cocos Island 2 21001011
Darwin 4 21111013
Townsville 5 22111023
Learmonth 4 21111022
Alice Springs 3 21010013
Gingin 4 32011012
Canberra 3 21001022
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 31111013
Hobart 5 32111012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 32001012
Casey 21 45532123
Mawson 15 53322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3222 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 8 G0
28 Nov 22 G1, chance of G2
29 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 27-Nov. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 28-Nov,
with a chance of G2 due to the arrival of a CME first observed
on 25-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 29-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 26-Nov were
normal to fair. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal on 27-Nov and 29-Nov. Normal to fair conditions
are expected on 28-Nov due to geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 139 was issued on
26 November and is current for 26-28 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 26-Nov were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Depressions of 15% were observed
in northern Australia during local day hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 27-29 Nov. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 76200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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