[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 November 24 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Nov 26 10:30:46 AEDT 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  R2

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0159UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.8    0453UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M9.4    0742UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.0    1212UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1639UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.5    1707UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.9    2054UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 220/170

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            210/161            210/161

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Nov was at the R2 level 
due to an M9.4 flare at 25/0742UT produced by an unnumbered region 
currently near N19E88 (beta). Several flares at the R1 level 
were also observed over the UT day. There are currently nine 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered 
region. AR3906 (S16E26, beta-delta) is the most magnetically 
complex region on the disk and has exhibited spot development 
in its intermediate spots. AR3905 (S07E26, beta) has shown spot 
growth in its trailer spot, whilst some of its intermediate spots 
have decayed. AR3907 (S07W20, beta) has exhibited spot growth 
over the UT day. An unnumbered region recently rotated over the 
eastern limb near N19E88 (beta) and appears stable. All other 
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity 
is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 26-28 Nov. Several CMEs 
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A filament 
eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from 25/0119UT 
near S37E10. A subsequent CME was observed, visible in LASCO 
C2 coronagraph imagery from 25/0312UT. Modelling indicates this 
CME is not geoeffective. An M1.9 flare observed at 25/2054UT 
showed some coronal dimming effects visible in SDO imagery. Analysis 
of any subsequent CME will be completed once coronagraph imagery 
becomes available. The solar wind speed on UT day 25-Nov mildly 
declined, ranging from 370 to 450 km/s and is currently near 
405 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+8 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline to background 
levels over 26-28 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32322322
      Cocos Island         6   22222211
      Darwin               9   32222322
      Townsville          11   32322323
      Learmonth           12   32323422
      Alice Springs       10   32322322
      Gingin              11   33223322
      Canberra            10   32322322
      Kennaook Cape Grim  11   32323322
      Hobart              11   32323322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    17   22244522
      Casey               26   35633323
      Mawson              28   44534444

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1110 1113     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov     8    G0
27 Nov     8    G0
28 Nov     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 25-Nov. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period 
of G2 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 26-28 Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 25-Nov were 
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be 
mostly normal over 26-28 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Nov   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      139
Nov      119
Dec      117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov   105    Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov   105    Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 25-Nov were mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Sporadic E was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local day 
hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 26-28 
Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au