[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 24 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Nov 25 10:31:54 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2022UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 203/154
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Nov was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.1 flare at 24/2022UT. There are currently ten numbered
active regions on the solar disk. AR3905 (S07E38, beta-gamma),
AR3906 (S16E39, beta) are the largest and most significant active
regions and showed development over the UT day. The M1.1 flare
from today was either produced by AR3908 (N13E67, alpha) or by
a region beyond the eastern limb. AR3903 (S10W57, beta) and AR3907
(S19E04, beta) also showed spot development over the UT day.
Three small unnumbered regions are visible at N30W04, S10W10
and S19W10 with beta, alpha and alpha magnetic characteristics
respectively, all appeared stable over the UT day. All other
active regions were either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is exected to be at R0-R1 levels over 25-27 Nov. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 24-Nov. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 25-27 Nov. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed on 24-Nov. A filament lift off is visible
from 24/1420UT at around S02E12 in H-Alpha imagery. No associated
CME is visible in currently available imagery. The solar wind
speed was steady over the UT day, with a slight increase from
around 24/2045UT. The solar wind speed mostly ranged between
350 km/s and 470 km/s and is currently at around 420 km/s. An
increase in the interplanetary field strength is visible alongside
the increase in solar wind speed. The peak total field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component range was
+7 to -7 nT, with sustained -Bz from 24/2045UT onwards. The current
solar wind disturbance is likely due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. These may persist over 25-Nov with a return
to background solar wind conditions expected over 26-27 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22211123
Cocos Island 3 11111021
Darwin 6 22211123
Townsville 5 21111123
Learmonth 6 22111123
Alice Springs 5 21201123
Gingin 6 21211123
Canberra 5 12200123
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22211123
Hobart 5 22200123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 22100122
Casey 24 54542233
Mawson 20 35322325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 61 (Active)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2012 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 12 G0, chance of G1
26 Nov 5 G0
27 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 24-Nov
in the Australian region. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with G0 conditions observed
at Macquarie Island. Mostly G0 geomagnetic activity is expected
over 25-27 Nov, with a chance of G1 on 25-Nov due to mildly enhanced
solar wind conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 24-Nov were
poor for the first third of the day at all latitudes. Conditions
improved to fair to normal at low and mid latitudes for the remainder
of the day. Conditions remained poor at high latitude. HF radio
communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal to
fair over 25-27 Nov, with worse conditions expected at high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
26 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
27 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 137 was issued on
23 November and is current for 23-25 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 24-Nov were depressed
by 15% during local day and were near predicted monthly values
for the rest of the day. Sporadic E was observed at Hobart and
Canberra during local daylight hours. Spread F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 25-27 Nov, although 10-15% depressions
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 75600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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