[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 23 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Nov 24 10:31:52 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 22/2215UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 1607UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1811UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 200/152
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Nov was R1, with two M1
level solar flares; one from AR39901 (S06W05, beta) and one from
a region beyond the northeastern solar limb. There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3905 (S07E53,
beta) and AR3906 (S16E52, gamma) appear to have undergone some
minor growth. Solar activity is exected to be R0-R1 over 24-26
Nov, primarily due to ARs 3905 and 3906.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 23-Nov.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 24-26 Nov.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 23-Nov, but none are considered
to be geoeffective.
The solar wind environment on UT day 23-Nov was generally steady.
The solar wind speed ranged between 353 and 440 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the
north-south IMF component range was +7 to -7 nT. The solar wind
environment is expected to be generally undisturbed over 24-26
Nov. There is a small chance of a disturbance due to a coronal
hole, however this feature has mostly either decayed or been
obscured from view.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 21133122
Cocos Island 5 21122121
Darwin 7 21222123
Townsville 7 21133122
Learmonth 6 21122123
Alice Springs 5 21122122
Gingin 8 21133123
Canberra 7 21133122
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 22233122
Hobart 8 22233122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 16 11255222
Casey 23 45533233
Mawson 19 33434334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 1101 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 8 G0, slight chance G1
25 Nov 5 G0, slight chance G1
26 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 23-Nov
in the Australian region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic activity is expected
over 24-26 Nov, with a slight chance for G1 over 24-25 Nov due
to possible coronal activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1915UT 21/11, Ended at 1820UT 22/11
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1835UT 21/11, Ended at 0245UT 22/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 23-Nov were mostly
normal to mildly degraded. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 24-26 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
25 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
26 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 137 was issued on
23 November and is current for 23-25 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 23-Nov were near predicted
values to depressed by 20%. Sporadic E was observed in Hobart
and Perth during local midnight and dawn hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values over 24-26 Nov, although 10-15% depressions
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 86000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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