[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 22 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Nov 23 10:31:47 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1546UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Nov was at the R1 level
due to an M1.6 flare at 22/1546UT and an M1.0 flare at 22/2215UT.
There are currently ten numbered active regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3905 (S09E64, beta) was
responsible for the M1.6 flare at 22/1546UT and showed spot development
over the UT day. AR3898 (S15W47, beta), AR3901 (S06E10, beta),
AR3903 (S10W29, beta) and AR3904 (S14W73, alpha) also all showed
spot development but remain small and magnetically simple. An
unnumbered region has rotated on at S15E80 with beta magnetic
characteristics, this region was responsible for the M1.0 flare
at 22/2215UT. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
23-25 Nov. S2 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 22-Nov, however conditions declined rapidly to below
the S0 level in the final quarter of the UT day. S0 conditions,
with a chance of S1 are expected on 23-Nov, S0 conditions are
expected on 24-25 Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on
UT day 22-Nov. An eruption is visible from 22/1517UT at around
S25 on the southeast limb in GOES SUVI, SDO and H-alpha imagery.
An associated CME is visible directed to the southeast in SOHO
and STEREO-A imagery from 22/1548UT. This CME is not considered
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Nov was steady,
ranging between 360 km/s and 440 km/s and is currently at around
400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+9 to -8 nT. A sustained period of -Bz was observed from 22/1330UT
to 22/1600UT. Mild solar wind speed enhancements are possible
over 23-24 Nov due to a small coronal hole currently in a geoeffective
position. The solar wind speed is expected to be light on 25-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22222323
Cocos Island 5 12122221
Darwin 8 22222223
Townsville 7 22122223
Learmonth 12 32223333
Alice Springs 7 21222223
Gingin 10 32223322
Canberra 9 22222323
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 22223323
Hobart 10 22223323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 15 22125432
Casey 32 56543224
Mawson 22 34234534
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1112 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 12 G0, chance of G1
24 Nov 8 G0
25 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Nov. Mostly G1 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G2 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 23-25 Nov,
with a slight chance of G1 on 23-Nov due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal-fair Fair-normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1915UT 21/11, Ended at 1820UT 22/11
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1835UT 21/11, Ended at 0245UT 22/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Nov were
normal to fair at low and mid latitudes and were mostly poor
at high latitudes, particularly at the beginning and end of the
UT day, due to an ongoing PCA event. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 23-25 Nov. PCA conditions
at high latitudes are unlikely to persist due to the rapid decline
in solar proton flux. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Nov in
the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values,
with some slight depressions in the southern Australian region
during local dawn. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 23-25 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 89400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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