[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 21 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Nov 22 10:31:47 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Nov was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3901 (S06E25, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has shown growth in its trailer
spots. Newly numbered regions AR3903 (S08W16, beta) and AR3904
(S11W61, beta) recently appeared on the solar disk and have shown
spot growth. An unnumbered region recently rotated over the eastern
limb near S08E78 (alpha) and appears stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 Nov. S1 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 21-Nov, including a 100 MeV proton event
which commenced at 21/1835UT. The source of these protons was
a farside eruption which also produced an associated non-Earth-directed
CME. S1-S2 solar proton conditions are expected over 22-24 Nov.
Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
A prominence eruption was observed, visible in GOES SUVI imagery
from 21/1017UT off the eastern limb. A subsequent associated
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
21/1248UT toward the southeast. This CME is not considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 21-Nov mildly increased, ranging
from 370 to 415 km/s and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. The solar
wind speed may mildly increase over 22-23 Nov due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 12321222
Cocos Island 5 11221221
Darwin 8 22221233
Townsville 9 22321233
Learmonth 9 22231233
Alice Springs 7 22321222
Gingin 9 12321233
Canberra 7 12321222
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 13321222
Hobart 9 13321223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 02321122
Casey 28 36543333
Mawson 21 23333255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1332 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 15 G0, slight chance of G1
23 Nov 14 G0, slight chance of G1
24 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Nov. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G2 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 22-24 Nov, with a slight chance of G1 over 22-23 Nov due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 11 2024 1915UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 21 11 2024 1835UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 21-Nov were
normal at low latitudes, fair at mid latitudes and became poor
at high latitudes late in the UT day due to an ongoing PCA event.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 22-24 Nov with poor (PCA) conditions on 22-Nov for high
latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Nov in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values. Southern
Australian region sites were depressed by 20% during local day
hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 22-24
Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 58500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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