[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 20 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Nov 21 10:31:47 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1948UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Nov was at the R1 level
due to an M1.1 flare at 20/1948UT produced by AR3897 (S12W92,
beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3901 (S06E39,
beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk
and has exhibited spot development in its trailer spots over
the UT day. AR3896 (N05W40, beta) has shown mild growth in its
trailer spots. AR3898 (S15W18, beta) has shown recent spot growth.
An unnumbered region is visible near S12E75 (alpha) and appears
stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 21-23 Nov.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 20-Nov was mostly stable, ranging from 350 to 405 km/s
and is currently near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -10 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels on 21-Nov, then may mildly increase
over 22-23 Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 13232212
Cocos Island 5 12222112
Darwin 9 232-----
Townsville 9 33232212
Learmonth 9 13232223
Alice Springs 8 23232212
Gingin 6 12232112
Canberra 7 13232211
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 13332212
Hobart 9 13332212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 13333211
Casey 19 45432232
Mawson 17 25343322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 1012 4421
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 8 G0
22 Nov 15 G0, slight chance of G1
23 Nov 14 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 21-23 Nov, with a slight chance of G1 over 22-23 Nov due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 20-Nov were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 21-23 Nov with fair conditions at times
for high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Nov in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values. Southern
Australian region sites are depressed by 25% after local dawn
this morning. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 21-23 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 82600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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