[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 19 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Nov 20 10:31:50 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0000UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 154/109 154/109 154/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Nov was at the R1 level
due to a single M1 flare. The M1 flare was produced by solar
region AR3889 (S09W95, beta) which has now rotated off disk with
only its trailer spot just visible. Solar flare activity has
significantly decreased. Solar region AR3901 (S06E51, beta-delta)
which produced much of yesterdays flare activity has been stable
over the past 24 hours, though a very small/weak delta spot may
be still be evident in the eastern most of its three main spots.
This region only produced C class flare activity with the larger
C flares a C9.0 flare at 19/1728UT and a C7.9 flare at 19/1834UT.
Solar region AR3897 (S12W71, beta-gamma) is growing as it approaches
the southwest solar limb. The number of small spots in minor
region AR3898 (S15W06, beta) has increased. Small solar region
AR3896 (N05W27, beta) is also growing. There are eight numbered
active regions visible on the solar disk. Most regions are small
in size and are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is
expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 20-22 Nov. Solar radiation
storm conditions were at the S0 level on 19-Nov. S0 conditions
are expected over 20-22 Nov. A small eruptive northern solar
limb prominence was observed in GOES SUVI images from 19/0833UT.
There are currently two equatorial coronal holes visible on the
solar disk centred at S15E10 and a smaller hole at S08W20. No
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A narrow out of the ecliptic
plane north northwest CME from an unstable base of a coronal
streamer was observed from 19/1412UT. In STEREO-A a southeast
CME was observed from 19/0409UT. This CME could not be correlated
to on disk activity. The solar wind environment on UT day 19-Nov
slightly declined, ranging from near 340 to 420 km/s, and is
currently at around 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +5 to -8 nT. The IMF Bz component was mildly southward
for the interval 19/0652-1616UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to further decline today and may slightly increase during the
interval 22-24 Nov due to coronal hole wind streams. Previously
flare active solar region AR3878 is due back to the northeast
solar limb on 23-Nov, however this region showed significant
decay in the later half of its previous disk transit.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 11123322
Cocos Island 4 11112310
Darwin 7 11123322
Townsville 7 2122322-
Learmonth 7 11123322
Alice Springs 7 11123322
Gingin 7 21122322
Canberra 8 21223322
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 11223422
Hobart 9 11223422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 10234431
Casey 15 44332223
Mawson 16 33234432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 8 G0
21 Nov 8 G0
22 Nov 15 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions over the UT day 19-Nov. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 20-22 Nov, with the chance of isolated
G1 periods during the interval 22-24 Nov due to coronal hole
high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
22 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-Nov were
normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be generally
fair to normal for 20-22 Nov with fair conditions at times for
middle to high latitudes. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 110 15% depressed/Near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 135 was issued on
17 November and is current for 18-20 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-Nov in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. Southern Australian region sites were mildly
depressed by 15% at times. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 20-22 Nov. Further periods of mild 15% depressions
may be experienced at times on 20-Nov. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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