[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 November 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Nov 30 10:30:46 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 220/170
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Nov was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, however analysis is limited due to the SDO
outage. AR3905 (S09W30, beta-gamma) and AR3906 (S16W23,
beta-gamma) remain the most complex areas on the disk,
and have shown some minor growth in trailing spots but overall
have not shown any significant change in the past day. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over 30-Nov to 02
Dec.
A filament in the southern solar hemisphere lifted off from
1217 UT and was associated with a slow southward CME, but it
is not expected to be geoeffective. No other noteworthy CMEs
were observed today.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day
29-Nov. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over
30-Nov to 02-Dec.
The solar wind environment on UT day 29-Nov was mildly disturbed
due to the arrival of a recent CME at 0218 UT. The solar wind
speed reached a peak of 460 km/s before falling to near 380 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT
and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +14 to -10 nT.
The solar wind environment is expected to settle into background
conditions on 30-Nov. There is a chance of a mild disturbance
from over 01-02 Dec due to a small equatorial coronal hole,
however this will likely be brief.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 23321123
Cocos Island 5 22221022
Darwin 8 23222123
Townsville 10 23322133
Learmonth 9 33322122
Alice Springs 9 23322123
Gingin 9 33321122
Canberra 9 23321123
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 23321123
Hobart 10 23321133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 22241022
Casey 45 56753223
Mawson 15 33342134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 10 G0, slight chance G1
01 Dec 8 G0
02 Dec 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: In the BOM magnetometer data for 29 Nov, a weak (10nT)
impulse was observed at 0303UT, which has been identified as
the arrival of a CME from 25-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 29-Nov. G0-G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 30-Nov to 02-Dec, with a slight
chance for G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 29-Nov were
generally normal, with some degradations at high latitudes. HF
radio propagation is expected to be mostly normal over 30-Nov
to 02-Dec, with a slight chance of further high latitude degradations.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 135 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
02 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 140 was issued on
29 November and is current for 29 Nov to 1 Dec. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 29-Nov
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic-E was observed
in Niue, Canberra and Brisbane during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values, with a chance of becoming
depressed by 5-15% over 30-Nov to 02-Dec. This is due to a recent
CME arrival, followed by possible coronal hole effects over the
end of the period. Sporadic-E is likely to persist.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 46000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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