[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 17 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Nov 18 10:31:46 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Nov was at the R0 level.
There are seven numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk and three unnumbered region. AR3889 (S10W66, beta) is the
largest and most significant active region, but appears stable
and will rotate off the solar disk on 19-Nov. AR3896 (N05W02,
beta) and AR3897 (S12W47, beta) both showed spot development
over the UT day but remain small and magnetically simple. An
unnumbered region has developed at S13W18 with beta magnetic
characteristics. A further two unnumbered regions have rotated
onto the solar disk at S08E85 and N53E80 with beta and alpha
magnetic characteristics respectively. Previously visible active
regions which produced M and X-class flares are expected to reappear
on the solar disk on 18-Nov, however these new unnumbered regions
appear to be at different latitudes than these regions. All other
active regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 18-20 Nov. Solar radiation
storm conditions were at the S0 level on 17-Nov. S0 conditions
are expected over 18-20 Nov. Several small CMEs were observed
over the UT day, but none are considered geoeffective. An eruption
on the disk is visible from 17/1826UT in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-alpha
imagery at around N30W40, no associated CME is visible in available
coronagraph imagery. Further analysis will be performed when
more imagery becomes available. The solar wind environment on
UT day 16-Nov was steady, ranging from near 314 to 400 km/s,
and is currently at around 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed may be enhanced
over 18-19 Nov due to a small coronal hole currently in a geoeffective
position. The solar wind speed is expected to be moderate on
20-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12122022
Cocos Island 2 11112010
Darwin 4 11122022
Townsville 5 21122022
Learmonth 5 12123011
Alice Springs 5 02222022
Gingin 3 11112011
Canberra 6 12123022
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12213012
Hobart 5 02213022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 01234121
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 11 23323223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3232 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 10 G0, chance G1
19 Nov 8 G0
20 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions over the UT day 17-Nov. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 18-20 Nov, with the chance of periods
of G1 on 18-Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Poor-fair Fair-poor Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Fair-poor Fair-poor Fair-poor
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Nov were
poor in the first third of the UT day, conditions recovered at
low and mid latitudes but remained poor at high latitudes until
halfway through the day. Conditions then deteriorated at all
latitudes in the final quarter of the UT day. Conditions were
generally more favourable in the southern hemisphere and between
longitudes E45 and E180. These degraded conditions were likely
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to continue to be degraded
on 18-Nov, with a recovery on 19-20 Nov towards normal conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Nov in
the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values,
despite generally poor ionospheric conditions on the global level.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night and sporadic
E was observed at Norfolk Island during local morning. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 18-Nov
and near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15% on 19-20
Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 59300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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