[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 November 24 issued 2333 UT on 18 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Nov 19 10:33:10 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0522UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 0732UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0757UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.5 1058UT possible lower European
M1.6 1112UT possible lower European
M1.5 1127UT possible lower European
M3.7 1253UT possible lower European
M1.8 1749UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 2051UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Nov was at the R1 level
with nine M class flares observed. Solar region AR3901 (S07E68,
beta-delta) produced most of the flares including the M3.7 flare
at 18/1253UT. This region hasn't shown much growth in the past
24 hours and may contain a more magnetically complex delta trailing
spot. Solar region AR3889 (S10W77, beta) contributed two M1 class
flares. This regions leader spot has now rotated off disk. Small
solar regions AR3897 (S12W58, beta) and AR3896 (N05W13, beta)
have shown minor growth. There are eight numbered active regions
visible on the solar disk. Most regions are small in size and
are either stable or in decay. There are currently two equatorial
coronal holes visible on the solar disk centred at S15E25 and
a smaller hole at S08W05. In SDO304 imagery narrow plasma ejecta/sprays
were observed near region AR3901 at 18/0807UT, 18/1308UT and
18/1809UT. Narrow plasma ejecta was also observed from near solar
region AR3889 at 18/1733UT and 18/2028UT. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 19-21 Nov, primarily due to AR3901.
Solar radiation storm conditions were at the S0 level on 18-Nov.
S0 conditions are expected over 19-21 Nov. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. In LASCO C2 a faint northeast CME was
observed from 18/0448UT that could not be correlated to on disk
solar activity. Southeast CMEs were observed from 18/0836UT and
18/1924UT likely associated with the plasma sprays from AR3901.
A faint narrow directly east directed CME was observed from 18/1736UT
possibly from AR3901. These CMEs are not considered Earth directed
due to the far eastward location of AR3901. A southwest CME was
observed from 18/1212UT possibly associated with plasma sprays
from near AR3889/AR3897 which are located near the southwest
solar limb, and is also not considered Earth directed. When modelled
some of the CMEs were very slow and showed clear Earth misses
either behind or ahead of the Earth. The solar wind environment
on UT day 18-Nov was initially slow and steady then increased
after 18/0940UT, ranging from near 311 to 460 km/s, and is currently
at around 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +2 to -6 nT. The IMF Bz component was mildly southward
for much of the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to be
moderately enhanced due to solar coronal hole wind streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 13101111
Cocos Island 2 12001101
Darwin 4 13101112
Townsville 5 13101221
Learmonth 3 12101102
Alice Springs 3 12101102
Gingin 2 12001102
Canberra 3 03001211
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 13101211
Hobart 4 13101211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 13000210
Casey 12 35222212
Mawson 9 33122223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1222 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 10 G0
20 Nov 10 G0
21 Nov 15 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region over the UT day 18-Nov. G0-G1 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region with an isolated G1 period at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 19-21 Nov, with the
chance of periods of G1 on 21-Nov due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 18-Nov were
fair to normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to continue to be generally normal for 19-20 Nov with fair to
normal conditions on 21-Nov. Minor shortwave fadeouts are likely.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 135 was issued on
17 November and is current for 18-20 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 18-Nov in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. Southern Australian region sites were mildly
depressed by 15% at times. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at southern region
sites during local night hours. A brief minor fadeout was observed
18/0520-0524UT. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 19-21 Nov, with MUFs in the
southern Australian region depressed by up to 15% at times on
19-Nov. Minor shortwave fadeouts are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 45900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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