[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 16 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Nov 17 10:31:52 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0137UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Nov was at the R1 level,
due to a single M1.6 flare at 16/0137UT. There are five numbered
active regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR3892 (S11W38, beta) was responsible for the only M-class flare
of the UT day and has shown decay in its trailer spots. An unnumbered
region has developed at S08W31 with beta magnetic characteristics.
All other active regions are either stable or in decline. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 17-19 Nov. Several
small CMEs were observed over the UT day, but none are considered
geoeffective. An eruption on the disk is visible from 16/1813UT
in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery at around S35E35, no associated
CME is visible in available coronagraph imagery. Further analysis
will be performed when more imagery becomes available. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 16-Nov. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 17-19 Nov.
The solar wind environment on UT day 16-Nov was steady, ranging
from near 340 to 412 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -7 nT, with Bz predominantly northward throughout
the day. The current solar wind environment is indicative of
declining high speed solar wind influences, but further influences
are possible from a coronal hole currently in a geoeffective
location. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly steady,
with the chance of some mild increases over 17-19 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21111001
Cocos Island 2 21110000
Darwin 2 21111001
Townsville 3 21111012
Learmonth 2 21111001
Alice Springs 2 21111001
Gingin 2 21111001
Canberra 2 21111001
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22211001
Hobart 3 22211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 33441000
Casey 11 43332102
Mawson 13 44333101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3332 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 10 G0, chance of G1
18 Nov 10 G0, chance of G1
19 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions over the UT day 16-Nov. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 17-19 Nov, with the chance of periods
of G1 on 17-18 Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-Nov were
poor to fair with conditions improving in the second half of
the UT day. Degraded conditions were likely due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 17-19 Nov, with some slight
degradations due to coronal hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
18 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
19 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 134 was issued on
16 November and is current for 16-17 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16-Nov in the Australian region were mostly
near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed, with the most
depressed conditions occurring during local night hours. Spread
F was observed at Hobart and sporadic E was observed at multiple
sites in the Australian region. Nighttime sporadic E is expected
to be common in the coming weeks. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to 10-15% on 17-18 Nov due to ongoing
coronal hole activity. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on 19-Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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