[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 15 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Nov 16 10:31:46 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0147UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 1218UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Nov was R1, with two M1
solar flares from AR3893 (S19E35, beta). There are currently
four numbered sunspots on the disk. AR3892 (S08W29, beta) has
shown some minor growth over the past day. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 16-18 Nov.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 15-No, mostly due to filament
activity, but none are considered to be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 15-Nov.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 16-18 Nov.
The solar wind environment on UT day 15-Nov was mildly disturbed,
likely due to weak coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed was
on a gentle incline and ranged from near 350 to 450 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +3 to -10 nT. Bz was
intermittently oriented southward for most of the day.
Solar wind conditions are expected to follow a similar behaviour over
16-18 Nov, possibly increasing on 17-Nov due to the onset of a larger
part of the same coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22223221
Cocos Island 6 22213211
Darwin 8 32213212
Townsville 7 21223221
Learmonth 10 31224222
Alice Springs 7 22223221
Gingin 9 22224221
Canberra 7 22223221
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 22224221
Hobart 9 22224221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 17 34334421
Casey 15 44333222
Mawson 27 45335443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 1310 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 12 G0, chance G1
17 Nov 18 G0-G1
18 Nov 15 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region was
G0 on UT day 15-Nov. Geomagnetic conditions in the Antarctic
region was G0-G1. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
16-18 Nov due to continued coronal hole influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 15-Nov were
generally near normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 16-18 Nov, with some slight degradations
due to continued coronal hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
18 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Nov in
the Australian region were mostly near predicted values. Sporadic-E
was common at most Australian sites during local night hours.
Nighttime sporadic-E is expected to be common in the coming weeks.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted values but may
become depressed by 10-15% due to coronal hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 84600 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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