[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 14 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Nov 15 10:31:15 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Nov was R0. Solar region
AR3889 (S10W23, beta-gamma) produced C class flares. Solar region
AR3889 is the only significant region on the solar disk with
slow decay evident in its intermediate spots and an apparent
increase in penumbral area of the leader spot as it appears to
be starting to break apart. Minor penumbral growth is evident
in its trailer spot. AR3889 is now wide in longitudinal extent
with a more open spot configuration. Recently emerging small
solar region AR3894 (N22E48, beta) continues to grow. There are
currently five numbered sunspot regions on the disk. All other
sunspots are either stable or in decay. An erupting solar limb
prominence was observed on the southeast solar limb from 14/1909UT
at solar latitude S30. Solar flare activity is expected to be
R0-R1 for 15-17 Nov. A previously flare active solar region AR3869
is due for return to the solar disk on 18-Nov, however GONG farside
imagery appears to indicate that the region has likely decayed
on its far side transit. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 14-Nov and are expected over 15-17 Nov. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed. A southwest CME was observed
from 14/1325UT and a northeast CME at the base of a coronal streamer
was observed from 14/1912UT. Neither of these CMEs could be correlated
to on disk activity. The southeast solar limb prominence eruption
is not considered significant due to its east solar limb location.
The solar wind environment on UT day 14-Nov increased from light
to moderate with the Earth entering a weak coronal hole wind
stream at 14/0330UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 314 to
430km/s and is currently at 365km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +11 to -12nT. Southward intervals
in the IMF Bz component was observed during 14/0058-0326UT and
14/0953-2030UT. The solar wind is expected to be moderate for
today. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible on the
solar disk with centre located at N10W05 and the Earth is expected
to enter the wind stream from this hole late on 17-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12112222
Cocos Island 5 12112221
Darwin 6 22112222
Townsville 7 22122232
Learmonth 6 12122222
Alice Springs 5 12112222
Gingin 9 22112333
Canberra 6 12212222
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12222232
Hobart 8 12222233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 12114332
Casey 20 45432233
Mawson 31 26333643
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1201 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 16 G0, chance G1
16 Nov 12 G0
17 Nov 18 G0, chance G1 late in UT day
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 14-Nov
in the Australian region. In Antarctica G0 conditions were observed
at Macquarie Island, an isolated G1 period was observed at Casey
and two G2 periods were observed at Mawson. The Earth has entered
a coronal hole wind stream but little geomagnetic activity was
induced. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17
Nov, with a chance for G1 periods on 15-Nov due if sustained
periods of mildly southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions
persist. Another coronal hole wind stream may increase geomagnetic
activity from late in the UT day on 17-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on UT day 14-Nov, with fair conditions at high latitudes. HF
conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 15-17 Nov, with
some mild degradations during local night hours at mid to high
latitudes. Isolated minor fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 157
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
17 Nov 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on
UT day 14-Nov. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 15-Nov, with possible depressions of 15% at times and
possible mildly degraded conditions during local night. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 16-17 Nov. Isolated minor fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 46400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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