[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 13 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Nov 14 10:31:41 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0022UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.7 1708UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Nov was R1. Solar region
AR3889 (S09W08, beta-gamma-delta) produced two M1 class flares
and numerous C class flares. The trailer spots of AR3889 showed
minor redevelopment, though this region may be in slow overall
decline with the umbra in the leader spot splitting. Nearby region
AR3892 (S11E05, beta-gamma) was flare quiet with some development
in its trailer spots and this region may also be in overall decline.
Other on disk solar regions are small. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions on the disk. All other sunspots are
either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to
be R0-R1, with a chance for R2 over 14-16 Nov. Solar region AR3889
may produce an isolated R2 flare. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 13-Nov and are expected over 14-16 Nov. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed. A southwest directed CME was
observed from 12/2326UT and is considered far side activity.
The solar wind environment on UT day 13-Nov was slow and steady.
The anticipated increase in solar wind speed due to a coronal
hole wind stream has not yet eventuated. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -8nT. A southward interval in the IMF Bz
component was observed during the interval 13/1110-1450UT. A
large coronal hole in the northwest solar quadrant may enhance
solar wind speeds over 14-15 Nov, however some of the area of
the coronal hole is relatively high in solar latitude and may
pass above the Earth. A small isolated equatorial coronal hole
is visible on the solar disk with centre located at N10E05.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21022121
Cocos Island 3 21012021
Darwin 4 21022121
Townsville 5 11122122
Learmonth 5 21022122
Alice Springs 4 11022022
Gingin 4 21022121
Canberra 4 11022121
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 21122121
Hobart 4 11122111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 21124211
Casey 12 34333121
Mawson 10 32223322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1121 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 18 G0, chance G1
15 Nov 14 G0, chance G1
16 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 73 was issued on 11 November
and is current for 13-14 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed on UT day 13-Nov in the Australian and Antarctic region.
The anticipated mild increase in geomagnetic activity from a
coronal hole wind stream has yet to eventuate. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 14-16 Nov, with a chance for G1
periods during 14-15 Nov due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on UT day 13-Nov. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 14-16 Nov, with some mild degradations during local
night hours at mid to high latitudes. Isolated minor fadeouts
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
15 Nov 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
16 Nov 145 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values to 35% enhanced on UT day 13-Nov.
Regional MUFs were enhanced after local dawn this morning. MUFs
are generally expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
over 14-16 Nov, with mildly degraded conditions possible during
local night hours for the southern Australian region and possible
post dawn depressions of 15% on 15-Nov if an anticipated mild
increase in geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind stream
eventuates on 14-Nov. Isolated minor fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 61200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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