[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 12 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Nov 13 10:31:47 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 172/126 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Nov was R0. The most notable
flare of the day was a long duration C8 flare was observed off
the northeastern solar limb peaking at 1350 UT and was associated
with a CME. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
on the disk, however many are near the limb or have decayed into
plague. AR3889 (S09E03, beta-delta) has shown minor changes over
the past day, but may have several small delta sites. AR3892
(S11E17, beta) has shown some minor growth. All other sunspots
are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected
to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over 13-15 Nov.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 12-Nov and
are expected over 13-15 Nov. Post flare arcades were observed after
the C8 flare erupted, suggesting an eruption of energetic protons,
however the region may have been too high a latitude for the protons
to reach Earth.
The CME associated with the C8 flare is not expected to be geoeffective.
No other CMEs were observed.
The solar wind environment on UT day 12-Nov was near background
levels. The solar wind speed was on a gentle decline and ranged
from 417 to 346 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +4 to -4 nT. A large coronal hole in the northern solar hemisphere
may connect with Earth over 13-14 Nov to cause enhanced solar
wind speeds, however this feature is relatively high latitude
and may pass above the Earth. Outside of a disturbance from this
coronal hole, the solar wind environment is expected to be quiet
over 13-15 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11102211
Cocos Island 1 11101100
Darwin 3 11102210
Townsville 4 21102211
Learmonth 4 22102201
Alice Springs 3 11102210
Gingin 5 21102311
Canberra 3 11102210
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11202211
Hobart 4 11202211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 11302210
Casey 17 45432211
Mawson 10 23223223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2132 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 16 G0, chance G1
14 Nov 18 G0-G1
15 Nov 14 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 73 was issued on 11 November
and is current for 13-14 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed on UT day 12-Nov in the Australian region. G0-G1 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 13-15 Nov, with a chance for G1
due to possible coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on UT day 12-Nov. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 13-15 Nov, with some mild degradations during local
night hours at mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
14 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
15 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values to 20% enhanced on UT day 12-Nov.
Sporadic-E was observe din Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values over 13-15, with some
nighttime depressions near 15-20% due to anticipated coronal
hole activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 92300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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