[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 11 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Nov 12 10:31:45 AEDT 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0527UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    0543UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 182/135

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            178/131

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Nov was at the R1 level 
due to two low level M-class flares, the largest of which was 
an M1.4 flare at 11/0543UT produced by AR3889 (S10E17, beta-gamma-delta). 
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on 
the solar disk. AR3889 is the largest and most magnetically complex 
region on the disk and has exhibited spot development over the 
UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 12-14 Nov. 
S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 11-Nov. S0 
solar proton conditions are expected over 12-14 Nov. No Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed. A filament eruption was observed, visible 
in GOES SUVI imagery from 11/1345 near S50E25. A subsequent CME 
was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 11/1624UT. 
Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective. The solar wind 
speed on UT day 11-Nov decreased, ranging from 380 to 435 km/s 
and is currently near 385 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain near background levels on 12-Nov, then increase over 
13-14 Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11332311
      Cocos Island         4   11212201
      Darwin               6   21222311
      Townsville           9   12332322
      Learmonth            8   21332311
      Alice Springs        8   11332311
      Gingin               9   21333311
      Canberra             8   11431212
      Kennaook Cape Grim  10   12432311
      Hobart              10   12432311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    22   12653321
      Casey               14   34432222
      Mawson              15   33333432

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25   4422 5553     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov     8    G0
13 Nov    18    G0-G1
14 Nov    18    G0-G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 73 was issued on 11 November 
and is current for 13-14 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 11-Nov. Mostly G0 
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, 
with isolated periods of G1 and G2 observed at Macquarie Island. 
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 13-14 Nov due to coronal hole high 
speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Fair-poor      Fair           Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
14 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were fair to poor 
on UT day 11-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are expected 
to be mostly normal on 12-Nov, tending to fair at mid latitudes 
over 13-14 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Nov    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      139
Nov      119
Dec      117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 132 was issued on 
10 November and is current for 10-12 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 11-Nov were depressed 
by 15-35%. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night 
hours. Southern Australian region MUFS are 15-25% depressed after 
local dawn this morning. MUFs are expected to be generally 
near predicted monthly values over 12-14 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts 
are probable.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    72700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au