[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 10 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Nov 11 10:31:44 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.2 0015UT possible lower West Pacific
M9.4 1206UT probable lower European
M4.9 2021UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 231/181
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 215/165 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Nov was at the R2 level
due to a M9.4 flare from solar region AR3889 (S10E28, beta-gamma-delta).
This region also produced the M4.2 and M4.9 flares. This region
is the most significant of the on disk regions and has continued
to grow particularly in its leader spots. Solar region AR3883
(S06W38, beta) continues to decay and region AR3886 (S06W17,
beta) has now almost completely decayed. There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 11-13 Nov, primarily due
to AR3889. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day
10-Nov. S0, chance S1 solar proton conditions are expected over
11-13 Nov. Whilst the M4.9 flare profile suggests a possible
proton flux enhancement may follow, the longitude of AR3889 is
still quite to the east. The M4.2 flare does not appear to be
associated with a significant CME with a narrow northeast CME
visible in LASCO C2 after the flare from 10/0024UT. A narrow
coronal streamer is visible to the southeast near this time with
some disruption. A CME south southwest is visible in LASCO C2
from 10/0824UT which could not be correlated to on disk activity.
A CME to the south southeast is visible in LASCO C2 from 10/1100UT
and is considered to be associated with breaking arches on the
southeast solar limb at solar latitude S35-S45 visible in SDO193
imagery at 10/1006-1015UT and also in SDO/SUVI304 imagery a limb
prominence eruption is visible at S45 at 10/1009UT. The M9.4
flare is visible later on in SDO193 imagery from 10/1208UT with
limited to no on disk plasma motion/diming evident, with a subsequent
relatively narrow slow CME visible in LASCO C2 from 10/1248UT
to the southeast and has been modeled as an Earth miss. Little
on disk plasma motion was evident in SDO193 imagery at the time
of the M4.9 flare, possibly suggesting that no significant CME
has occurred. LASCO imagery is currently up to 10/2112UT and
space based coronagraph imagery will checked for any possible
CME associated with the more slowly declining M4.9 flare. A CME
is just becoming visible to the southwest in the latest LASCO
C2 image but at this stage is considered to be possibly further
far side activity. Further analysis will be conducted as images
become available. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Nov was mildly
elevated and initially steady with a slight increase after 10/1030UT,
ranging from 370 to 450 km/s and is currently near 440 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -8
nT. The IMF Bz was mildly southward during the interval 10/1148UT-1754UT.
The solar wind is expected to be moderately elevated on 11-Nov.
The leading edge of a large coronal hole that diagonally spans
the northeast solar quadrant ranging in solar latitude from N40-N08
has now started to cross the solar central meridian. The Earth
is estimated to enter the wind stream from this hole around 13-14
Nov. An extended period of moderately enhanced solar wind speed
is then expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 15 33224342
Cocos Island 8 32113231
Darwin 11 33123233
Townsville 16 33224343
Learmonth 17 43223352
Alice Springs 13 33123243
Gingin 16 33223352
Canberra 15 33224342
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 33225342
Hobart 18 33225343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 27 33345552
Casey 25 45533243
Mawson 39 44444473
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 36 4345 6543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 10 G0, chance G1 early in UT day
12 Nov 12 G0, chance G1 late in UT day
13 Nov 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Nov, with some sites reaching G1. In the
Antarctic region a G3 period was observed at Mawson and G1 periods
were observed at Casey and Macquarie Island. The planetary Kp
reached G1 late in the UT day on 10-Nov. This mild increase in
geomagnetic activity was associated with an interval of mildly
southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions. Generally
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-12 Nov, with G1
periods on 13-Nov as the Earth is expected to enter a coronal
hole wind stream on 13-14 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Poor-fair Poor
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were fair on 10-Nov
for middle to high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be fair to poor on 11-Nov for middle to high
latitudes, then improving. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 65 Depressed 15-30%
12 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 132 was issued on
10 November and is current for 10-12 Nov. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 133 was issued on 10 November and is current for 11 Nov
only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region
on UT day 10-Nov were generally near predicted monthly values
in the northern Australian region during the local day yesterday.
Southern Australian region MUFs were depressed by up to 25% during
the local day yesterday with the exception of Perth which remained
generally near predicted monthly values. Australian region MUFS
are 15-40% depressed after local dawn this morning. Strong spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. A minor shortwave
fadeout was observed 10/0010-0028UT. MUFs are expected to be 15-30%
depressed in the Australian region for 11-Nov and to be generally
be near predicted monthly values over 12-13 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 48000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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