[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 09 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Nov 10 10:31:44 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 2050UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 221/171
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 215/165 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Nov was at the R1 level
due to a single M1.2 flare from solar region AR3889 (S10E43,
beta-gamma-delta). Solar regions AR3883 (S06W23, beta-gamma),
AR3886 (S06W02, beta) produced C class flares. Solar region AR3883
continued to exhibit decline in its intermediate and trailer
spots. Solar region AR3886 is in advanced decay. AR3889 is the
most magnetically complex region on the disk with growth in its
leader spots and a reduction in penumbral area in its trailer
spots. Solar region AR3879 (N20W72, alpha) which consists of
a large stable single spot is approaching the northwest solar
limb. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1, chance R2
levels over 09-11 Nov, primarily due to AR3889. S0 solar proton
conditions were observed on UT day 09-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 10-12 Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A slow northeast CME was observed from approximately
09/0600UT due to an unstable coronal streamer. A southeast CME
was observed from 09/1024UT which could not be correlated to
on disk activity. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Nov was mildly
elevated and steady, ranging from 367 to 448 km/s and is currently
near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+10 to -13 nT. The IMF has generally been mildly enhanced over
the UT day. Sustained mild southward IMF conditions were observed
from 09/0000-1650UT. The solar wind is expected to be moderately
elevated on 10-Nov. A large coronal hole that diagonally spans
the northeast solar quadrant ranging in solar latitude from N40-N08
and has started to cross the solar central meridian. The Earth
is estimated to enter the wind stream from this hole around 13-14
Nov. An extended period of enhanced solar wind speed is then expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: G1
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 20 33335433
Cocos Island 15 33334332
Darwin 15 32334333
Townsville 19 33344433
Learmonth 22 43335433
Alice Springs 19 32335433
Gingin 23 43335443
Canberra 18 33334433
Kennaook Cape Grim 21 43335432
Hobart 22 33345433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 41 33445753
Casey 22 45433333
Mawson 37 55545542
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2011 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 13 G0, chance G1
11 Nov 10 G0
12 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: A period of G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 09-Nov. Two planetary Kp periods
of G1 were observed on 09-Nov. In the Antarctic region a G3 period
was observed at Macquarie Island and G1 periods were observed
at Casey and Mawson. This mild increase in geomagnetic activity
was associated with sustained mildly southward interplanetary
magnetic field conditions. Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 10-12 Nov, with a possibility of a further
isolated G1 period on 10-Nov due to a coronal hole wind stream.
The Earth is expected to enter a coronal hole wind stream on
13-14 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were fair to normal
on UT day 09-Nov, with fair conditions observed at some middle
to high latitudes locations. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 10-12 Nov, with fair conditions
possible for middle to high latitudes on 10-Nov. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Learmonth depressed 30-40% early in UT day.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Perth depressed 30-40% early in UT day.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn this morning.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 120 Depressed 15%/Near to 15% above predicted monthly
values
11 Nov 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Nov 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 131 was issued on 9
November and is current for 10 Nov only. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 09-Nov were generally
near predicted monthly values in the northern Australian region,
with the exception of Learmonth which was 30-40% depressed early
in the UT day. Southern Australian region MUFs were near predicted
monthly values during the local day yesterday with the exception
of Perth which was 30-40% depressed early in the UT day. Southern
Australian region MUFS are 15-20% depressed after local dawn
this morning. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to generally be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 11-12 Nov. Mildly depressed/degraded
HF conditions may be experienced during local night hours for
the southern Australian region 10-Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 12.9 p/cc Temp: 30800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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