[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 08 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Nov 9 10:31:43 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0301UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 231/181
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 230/180 225/175
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Nov was at the R1 level.
Solar region AR3883 (S06W10, beta-gamma) produced an M1.5 flare
and several C class flares. Solar regions AR3886 (S06E12, beta)
and AR3889 (S10E57, beta-gamma-delta) produced C class flares.
Whilst AR3889 has a more complex magnetic configuration the magnetic
gradient in this region is currently not that steep. This region
is slightly growing with more obvious penumbral development in
its leader spots. The intermediate spots of region AR3883 are
declining. The numerous small spots of AR3886 appear to be in
decay. Solar region AR3879 (N20W60, alpha), which is the largest
region on the disk, consists mainly of a stable large spot. There
are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 09-11 Nov.
S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 08-Nov. S0
solar proton conditions are expected over 09-11 Nov. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A north northeast CME was observed from
08/1548UT and is presumed to be far side activity. Some small
localised plasma motion/diming was observed in SDO193 imagery
at N05W15 at 18/1907UT possibly in association with a minor C
class flare from AR3883. Available LASCO imagery is up to 08/1724UT.
This activity is currently not considered significant and subsequent
LASCO imagery will be checked for any possible minor CME. The
solar wind speed on UT day 08-Nov was mildly elevated and steady,
ranging from 350 to 390 km/s and is currently near 390 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +14 to -12
nT. A period of mild southward IMF conditions was observed 08/1700-2030UT.
The enhanced IMF conditions may be due continuing effects from
a weak glancing blow from the M3.8 flare/CME on 05-Nov which
was observed yesterday. The solar wind speed is expected to moderately
increased on 09-Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a coronal hole currently located at S30W30. A large
coronal hole currently diagonally spans the northeast solar quadrant
ranging in solar latitude from N40-N10. The Earth is estimated
to enter the wind stream from this hole around 13-14 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 12233244
Cocos Island 9 12233232
Darwin 14 22233244
Townsville 14 22233244
Learmonth 12 22233243
Alice Springs 13 12233244
Gingin 11 11233243
Canberra 13 12233144
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 12222144
Hobart 11 22222144
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 12122133
Casey 20 34532243
Mawson 17 34221353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1122 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 14 G0, chance G1
10 Nov 13 G0, chance G1
11 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity
was observed late in the UT day in association with an interval
of southward IMF conditions. Generally G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 09-11 Nov, with a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity during 09-10 Nov due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were normal on UT
day 08-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 09-11 Nov, with fair conditions possible
for high latitudes 09-10 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by up to 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 129 was issued on
6 November and is current for 7-9 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 08-Nov were near predicted
monthly values to 30% enhanced. Enhancements of up to 30% were
observed at Townsville and Darwin during local night hours. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic E
was occasionally observed at several locations. A minor shortwave
fadeout was observed 08/0258-0311UT. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 09-11 Nov.
Mildly depressed/degraded HF conditions may be experienced during
local night hours for the southern Australian region 09-10 Nov.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 45600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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