[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 07 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Nov 8 10:31:44 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 06/2306UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.6 0004UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.5 0127UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.5 0420UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0726UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.7 0754UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1202UT possible lower European
M2.3 1506UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 239/188
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 265/216 260/210 250/200
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Nov was at the R1 level
due to seven low level M-class flares, the largest of which was
an M2.7 flare at 07/0754UT produced by AR3889 (S10E70, beta-gamma).
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3883 (S06E03, beta-gamma-delta)
is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has exhibited
growth in its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR3887 (N16W78,
beta) has decayed and will soon rotate over the western limb.
AR3886 (S06E25, beta) has shown growth in its intermediate spots.
Newly numbered AR3889 (S10E70, beta-gamma) recently rotated over
the eastern limb and appears stable. AR3889 was responsible for
four of the seven M-class flares observed over the UT day. An
unnumbered region is visible near S12E55 (alpha) and is stable.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 08-10 Nov. S0
solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 07-Nov. S0 solar
proton conditions are expected over 08-10 Nov. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A filament eruption was observed, visible
in GOES SUVI imagery from 07/0441UT near S25W70. A subsequent
southwest-directed CME was observed, visible in STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery from 07/0609UT. Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Nov decreased, ranging from
370 to 425 km/s and is currently near 375 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -6 nT. A weak solar wind shock
was observed at 07/1424UT, indicative of a CME arrival. A period
of mild southward IMF conditions began at 07/1731 and is ongoing.
Two high latitude coronal holes may influence the solar wind
from 09-Nov. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels on 08-Nov, then possibly increase on 09-Nov
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 12231323
Cocos Island 6 11121322
Darwin 7 22221322
Townsville 10 1223242-
Learmonth 14 12231533
Alice Springs 8 12221323
Gingin 8 11221333
Canberra 9 22231323
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12131322
Hobart 9 12231323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 12351221
Casey 13 34331223
Mawson 14 32332343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3322 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 12 G0
09 Nov 12 G0
10 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 08-10 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were normal on UT
day 07-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 08-10 Nov, with fair conditions possible
for high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 129 was issued on
6 November and is current for 7-9 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 07-Nov were near predicted
monthly values to 15-35% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 08-10 Nov. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 94200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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