[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 06 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Nov 7 10:31:43 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0238UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0309UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.9 0804UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M5.8 0850UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1204UT possible lower European
M1.2 1302UT possible lower European
X2.3 1340UT probable all European
M5.3 1438UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1859UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 2043UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 2306UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 260/210
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 220/170 230/180
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Nov was at the R3 level
due to an X2.3 flare at 06/1340UT produced by AR3883 (S06E17,
beta-gamma-delta). Two R2 level flares were also observed, with
an M5.8 at 06/0850UT and an M5.3 at 06/1438UT. Several flares
at the R1 level were observed over the UT day. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and
two unnumbered regions. AR3883 is the most magnetically complex
region on the disk and was responsible for most of the flaring
activity on 06-Nov. This region has shown mild growth in its
leader and intermediate spots over the UT day. AR3879 (N20W34,
beta) has developed some small leader spots. AR3886 (S06E39,
beta) has exhibited mild growth in its intermediate spots over
the 24-hour period. Two unnumbered regions are visible in the
southeast quadrant near S13E69 (alpha) and S08E78 (beta). Both
unnumbered regions appear stable. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R2 level over 07-09 Nov, with a chance of R3. S0 solar proton
conditions were observed on UT day 06-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 07-09 Nov. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Nov decreased, ranging
from 380 to 490 km/s and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -7 nT. Two high
latitude coronal holes are currently crossing the central meridian
and may influence the solar wind from 09-Nov. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near background levels over 07-08
Nov, then possibly increase on 09-Nov due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 32223111
Cocos Island 5 22122111
Darwin 7 32213111
Townsville 8 32223121
Learmonth 8 32223122
Alice Springs 8 32223112
Gingin 9 32223222
Canberra 6 32222011
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 32223121
Hobart 7 33222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 13 23444101
Casey 18 44443222
Mawson 21 35433342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 66 (Active)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2032 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 6 G0
08 Nov 8 G0
09 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 07-09 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were normal on UT
day 06-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 07-09 Nov, with fair conditions possible
for high latitudes over 08-09 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Nov 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 129 was issued on
6 November and is current for 7-9 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 06-Nov were near predicted
monthly values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 07-09 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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