[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 05 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Nov 6 10:31:41 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.6 0654UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0923UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1338UT possible lower European
M2.9 1418UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.1 1526UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 245/195
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 225/175 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Nov was R1. The M2.6 flare
was on the southeast solar limb at S05E90 indicating a new region
may shortly rotate onto the solar disk. The M4.1 flare was from
the southwest limb at S15W90. Solar region AR3883 (S06E31, beta-gamma-delta)
produced the M1, M1.2 and M2.9 flares. This region has grown
in longitudinal extent with an overall increase in complexity
with the retention of its intermediate delta spot and development
of other intermediate spots. Solar region AR3886 (S06E53, beta-gamma)
exhibited some decay in its numerous small spots. The small leader
spots in region AR3878 (N16W36, beta-gamma) have increased in
number and size. A new region is currently rapidly emerging at
N15W52, a small new region has appeared at N04W33 and another
small region has emerged at S13E56. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions and three new unnumbered regions visible
on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 06-08 Nov. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT
day 05-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 06-08
Nov, but with an increasing risk of an S1 event primarily from
AR3883. Yesterdays east directed CME which was first visible
at 04/1724UT may have been associated with the M5.5 flare at
04/1541UT. This pairing was not initially made due to the large
time difference between the flare and CME times. Event modelling
assuming this pairing was conducted resulting in an extremely
slow CME speed of 330km/s and directed away/behind the Earth.
Several CMEs were observed on 05-Nov but none are considered
geoeffective. A sequence of slow eastward directed CMEs was observed
early in the UT day which could not be correlated to on disk
activity. Another brighter east directed CME was observed from
05/0712UT. This slow CME may be associated with the M2.6 east
limb flare and event modelling indicates a speed of 288km/s and
that it will pass well behind the Earth. LASCO imagery was available
up to 05/1424UT. Imagery will be subsequently checked for any
CME associated with the M4 flare. The solar wind speed on UT
day 05-Nov was moderately elevated and steady, ranging from 421
to 469 km/s and is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. The IMF Bz component fluctuated southward
mildly southward from 05/0530UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 06-Nov due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. There is a slight chance of a mild graze
of the magnetosphere on 07-Nov from the M3.8 east directed CME
observed on 04-Nov. Three coronal holes are visible in the eastern
solar hemisphere centred at S25E15, N60E30 and N12E55.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 21222223
Cocos Island 5 21212112
Darwin 6 21212213
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 11 31322224
Alice Springs 7 21212223
Gingin 8 31222223
Canberra 7 11222223
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 22322223
Hobart 9 22322223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 11443222
Casey 22 55433223
Mawson 21 52333344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 4422 2202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 6 G0
07 Nov 12 G0
08 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
on UT day 05-Nov. G0-G1 conditions were observed in Antarctica.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-08 Nov. A mild
increase in geomagnetic activity may be experienced on 07-Nov
due to a weak glancing blow from a predominately east directed
CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were normal on UT
day 05-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 06-08 Nov, with fair conditions possible
for high latitudes on 07-Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 165
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
07 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
08 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 128 was issued on
4 November and is current for 4-6 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 05-Nov were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. A shortwave fadeout impacting
lower HF frequencies were observed during the interval 05/0644-0720UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 06-08 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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