[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 04 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Nov 5 10:31:36 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0057UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.8 0140UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0345UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0415UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0434UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0708UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0840UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1017UT possible lower European
M1.1 1428UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1508UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M5.5 1541UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 238/187
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 230/180 230/180
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Nov was at the R2 level
due to a short duration M5.5 flare at 04/1541UT produced by AR3883
(S06E42, beta-gamma-delta). This region also produced the M3.8
flare at 04/0140UT. Eleven M class flares were observed on 04-Nov,
nine of which were produced by AR3883. Solar region AR3883 is
magnetically complex and has exhibited growth and redistribution
of its leader spots. Solar regions AR3886 (S06E64, beta) and
AR3878 (N16W25, beta-gamma) each contributed an M1 flare. New
spots have emerged just to the south of AR3886. The smaller surrounding
spots in region AR3878 have declined. Intermediate spots have
declined in region AR3881(S09W11, beta) and this region is now
more magnetically simple. Solar region AR3879 (N20W09, beta)
with a very large main spot has been stable and flare quiet.
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over
05-07 Nov. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day
04-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 05-07 Nov,
but with an increasing risk of an S1 event primarily from AR3883.
Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
An east directed CME was observed in association with the M3.8
flare and has been modelled as an Earth miss. The M5.5 flare
did not appear to have an associated CME. In LASCO C2 imagery
a narrow southwest CME was observed from 04/0024UT, a narrow
west directed CME was observed from 04/1325UT and an east directed
CME was observed from 04/1724UT. These CMEs could not be correlated
to on disk activity and are currently presumed to be far side
activity. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Nov was moderately
elevated and steady, ranging from 420 to 475 km/s and is currently
near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 05-06 Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from two small coronal holes currently in the solar western hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22222212
Cocos Island 4 22121101
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 8 32222203
Alice Springs 7 22222213
Gingin 7 32222103
Canberra 6 22222212
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 22332202
Hobart 8 22332212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 16 33543202
Casey 14 34432113
Mawson 18 45333312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gingin 85 (Minor storm)
Canberra 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2000 0333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 8 G0
06 Nov 6 G0
07 Nov 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Nov. G0-G1 conditions were observed in Antarctica.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 05-07 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were normal on UT
day 04-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 05-07 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced 40% during local night at Darwin.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 119
Dec 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
06 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
07 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 128 was issued on
4 November and is current for 4-6 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 04-Nov were generally
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. MUFs at Darwin
were enhanced by up to 40% during local night hours. Shortwave
fadeouts impacting lower HF frequencies were observed during
the intervals 04/0054-0253UT, 04/0342-0351UT, 04/0413-0418UT
and 04/0432-0437UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 05-07 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 77100 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list