[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 03 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Mon Nov 4 10:31:45 AEDT 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0311UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    0849UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.4    1524UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.3    1753UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 241/190

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   240/189            230/180            230/180

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Nov was at the R1 level 
due to four low level M-class flares, the largest of which was 
an M1.4 flare at 03/1524UT produced by AR3869 (S17W69, beta). 
There are currently eleven numbered sunspot regions visible on 
the solar disk. AR3869 produced the majority of the M-class flares 
observed and has decayed over the UT day. AR3883 (S06E57, beta) 
has exhibited spot development over the 24-hour period. AR3881 
(S09E04, beta) has shown spot growth. Newly numbered AR3885 (S10W40, 
beta) recently appeared on the solar disk and has shown spot 
growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 04-06 Nov. 
S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 03-Nov. The 
proton flux remained elevated with a declining trend. S0 solar 
proton conditions are expected over 04-06 Nov, with a chance 
of S1. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. 
An east-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph 
imagery from 03/1527UT. Modelling indicates this CME is not geoeffective. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Nov was mostly stable, ranging 
from 405 to 480 km/s and is currently near 465 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +11 to -6 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 04-06 Nov due 
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from two small 
coronal holes currently in the solar western hemisphere.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21120333
      Cocos Island         7   21110333
      Darwin               7   21120323
      Townsville           9   22121333
      Learmonth            9   21120433
      Alice Springs        8   21120333
      Gingin               9   21110334
      Canberra             7   11120333
      Kennaook Cape Grim   7   21110333
      Hobart               7   11110333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     5   11000233
      Casey               14   43332233
      Mawson              12   33210334

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   0013 4333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov     8    G0
05 Nov     8    G0
06 Nov     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the 
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Nov. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 04-06 Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Fair           Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were normal on UT 
day 03-Nov at low and high latitudes, with fair conditions at 
mid latitudes. HF radio communication conditions are expected 
to be mostly normal over 04-06 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts probable.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Nov    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      139
Nov      115
Dec      113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 03-Nov were near predicted monthly values in 
northern Australia. Southern Australian MUFs were depressed by 
20-30% during local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values over 04-06 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au