[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Nov 3 10:31:40 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0738UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0831UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 251/201
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 250/200 240/189 230/180
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Nov was at the R1 level
due to two low level M-class flares, the largest of which was
an M1.2 flare at 02/0831UT produced by AR3876 (S03W80, beta).
There are currently twelve numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3878 (N16E02, beta-delta) is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has shown mild growth in its trailer
spots. AR3876 has shown decay in its trailer spots. AR3874 (N24W82,
beta) will soon rotate over the western limb. AR3881 (S09E16,
beta) has shown spot growth. AR3869 (S17W57, beta) has exhibited
growth in its leader spots. AR3880 (S14E35, beta) and AR3883
(S06E68, beta) have both exhibited mild spot growth. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 03-05 Nov, with a chance
of R2. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 02-Nov,
though the proton flux remained elevated. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 03-05 Nov, with a chance of S1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Nov
increased, ranging from 380 to 510 km/s and is currently near
450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+11 to -12 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 03-05 Nov due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from two small coronal holes currently in the solar western hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 11133224
Cocos Island 7 11133222
Darwin 10 11133224
Townsville 12 21233234
Learmonth 11 11133234
Alice Springs 10 11133224
Gingin 10 11033234
Canberra 10 11133224
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 11244224
Hobart 13 11144224
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 20 00255433
Casey 21 44533233
Mawson 24 22355344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2011 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 12 G0, slight chance of G1
04 Nov 8 G0
05 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Nov. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 03-05 Nov, with a slight chance of G1 on 03-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2025UT 31/10, Ended at 0610UT 01/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were mostly normal
on UT day 02-Nov, with normal to fair conditions at mid latitudes.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 03-05 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 115
Dec 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 126 was issued on
1 November and is current for 1-3 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 02-Nov were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced in northern Australia. Southern
Australian MUFs were depressed by 15% during local day. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed at Weipa over the interval 02/1217-1310UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 03-05 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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