[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 November 24 issued 2331 UT on 01 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Nov 2 10:31:37 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0216UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1016UT possible lower European
M1.3 1252UT possible lower European
M2.0 1431UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 256/206
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 260/210 250/200 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Nov was at the R1 level
due to four low level M-class flares, the largest of which was
an M2.0 flare at 01/1431UT produced by AR3878 (N16E13, beta-delta).
There are currently twelve numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3878 is the most magnetically complex region
on the disk and has shown decay over the UT day. AR3876 (S03W59,
beta) has exhibited growth in its trailer spots. AR3869 (S17W46,
gamma) has shown mild growth over the 24-hour period. Newly numbered
AR3881 (S09E27, beta) recently appeared on the solar disk and
has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 02-04 Nov. S1 solar proton conditions were observed on UT
day 01-Nov, which declined to S0 by the end of the UT day. S0
solar proton conditions are expected over 02-04 Nov, with a chance
of S1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 01-Nov decreased, ranging from 380 to 510 km/s
and is currently near 385 km/s. A weak solar wind shock was observed
at 01/0628UT, indicative of a CME arrival. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain mildly elevated over 02-04 Nov due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from two small coronal holes currently
in the solar western hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 22222000
Cocos Island 3 12222000
Darwin 5 22222011
Townsville 5 22222011
Learmonth 4 22222001
Alice Springs 4 22222001
Gingin 4 22222010
Canberra 4 22222000
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22222010
Hobart 4 22222000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 22144000
Casey 27 56542121
Mawson 10 33233121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1010 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 10 G0
03 Nov 10 G0
04 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Nov. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G2 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 02-04 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1850UT 26/10, Ended at 1955UT 31/10
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2025UT 31/10, Ended at 0610UT 01/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were normal on UT
day 01-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 02-04 Nov. Shortwave fadeouts probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 139
Nov 115
Dec 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Nov 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Nov 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 126 was issued on
1 November and is current for 1-3 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 01-Nov were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced in northern Australia. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 02-04
Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 260000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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