[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 31 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Nov 1 10:31:33 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0252UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0330UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0937UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.4 1254UT possible lower European
M1.2 1359UT possible lower European
M1.0 1907UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M4.6 2110UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X2.0 2120UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 270/221
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 270/221 270/221 265/216
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Oct was R3. Solar region
AR3878 (N16E28, beta-delta) produced an R3 X2 flare and also
produced three M1 class flares. The X2 flare had a secondary
maximum during the flare decline of M9.4 at 31/2154UT. There
did not appear to be significant on disk plasma motion in SDO193
imagery during this flare. This region also produced a short
duration M4.6 flare prior to the X2 flare. Region AR3875 (N29W42,
beta-gamma-delta) produced the M2 class flare and AR3876 ( S03W44,
beta) produced a single M1 class flare and several C class flares.
Solar region AR3869 (S17W31, beta-gamma) whilst exhibiting some
degree of magnetic complexity was flare quiet. The largest region
currently on the disk is AR3879 (N20E44, alpha) which consists
of a large single stable spot. Solar region AR3875 is currently
growing and is now more magnetically complex. Solar region AR3876
and AR3869 showed slight decline and AR3878 showed slight development
in its intermediate spots. There are currently eleven numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. A very small solar filament located
at S12E05 erupted at 31/1314UT. Solar activity is expected to
be R1-R2 with a chance for an isolated R3 event over 01-03 Nov.
The recent S2 solar radiation event is in slow decline briefly
falling below the 10PFU threshold and is currently at 13PFU and
is expected to end early on 01-Nov. Solar radiation conditions
are expected to be S0 02-03 Nov. No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery up to 31/2212UT.
LASCO imagery will be monitored for any possible subsequent CME
from the X2 flare event from AR3878. Two directly southward CMEs
were observed at 13/1348UT and 31/1912UT. The earlier southward
CME has been paired with the on disk small filament eruption
and event modelling shows only a possible very weak arrival at
03/2100UT with the narrow CME generally passing under the Earth.
The later CME could not be correlated to on disk activity. A
north northwest directed CME was observed from 31/1023UT in STEREO-A
associated with an eruptive northwest limb solar prominence and
is not considered Earth directed. The solar wind environment
on UT day 31-Oct remained mildly enhanced. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +7 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from
480 to 620 km/s and is currently near 485km/s. The solar wind
speed data was very noisy and the peak speed may not be indicative
of the actual wind speed. The IMF Bz component was mildly southward
during the interval 31/1900-2200UT. Two small coronal holes are
visible on the solar disk. An isolated coronal hole has just
crossed the solar central meridian centred at N33W10. Another
coronal hole is just to the east of the solar central meridian
centred at N03E05. The solar wind speed may remain mildly elevated
during 01-03 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 21211233
Cocos Island 4 21111122
Darwin 5 21111123
Townsville 7 22211133
Learmonth 9 22211234
Alice Springs 6 12211223
Gingin 7 21111224
Canberra 6 12101133
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 11211233
Hobart 7 11211233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 11101123
Casey 35 55633335
Mawson 23 33333336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3233 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 10 G0
02 Nov 10 G0
03 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-Oct. G1-G2 conditions were observed at Casey
in the Antarctic region during the first half of the UT day.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 01-03 Nov. This forecast
may change if a CME is associated with today's X2 flare.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 26/1850UT, Ended at 31/1955UT
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 31/2025UT and is in progress. Proton
flux fluctuating over 10PFU threshold on decline.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were mostly fair to
normal on UT day 31-Oct, with some degradation at middle latitudes.
A polar cap absorption (PCA) event that began on 27-Oct recently
impacting high latitude HF communication has now eased. HF radio
communication conditions are expected to be normal 01-03 Nov.
Shortwave fadeouts probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Absorption observed first half of UT day then easing.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
02 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
03 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on 31-Oct were depressed
by up to 20% in the southern Australian region during the local
day. Northern Australian region MUFs were near normal becoming
enhanced during local night hours. Minor fadeouts were observed
31/0247-0304UT and 31/0326-0337UT. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Darwin and Niue 31/0836-1450UT. Spread F was
observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for 01-03
Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list