[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Thu May 30 09:30:42 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  R3

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    0106UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.4    0645UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.8    1121UT  possible   lower  European
  M2.5    1255UT  possible   lower  European
  X1.4    1437UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.7    1828UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M5.7    1841UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 171/125

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     R1-R2,chance R3    R1-R2,chance R3    R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-May was at the R3 level, 
due to an X1.4 flare from solar region AR3697(S18E57, beta-gamma-delta). 
This region also produced most of the M class flare activity, 
with AR3691(N26E12, beta-gamma-delta) producing the M5.7 flare 
and AR3695(N27E26, beta) producing the M1.8 flare. Solar region 
AR3691 showed intermediate spot development and AR3697 was mostly 
stable. These two solar regions are currently the largest and 
most magnetically complex regions on the solar disk. There are 
currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar 
disk. All other sunspot regions are small and are either stable 
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2, chance 
R3 levels over 30-May to 01-Jun. No significantly Earth directed 
CMEs have been observed up to 29/1636UT. A faint northwest CME 
was observed from 29/0200UT which could not be correlated to 
on disk activity. An eastward CME was observed from 29/1448UT 
in LASCO C2 imagery following the X1.4 flare from AR3697 and 
has been modelled as predominately an Earth miss, with a weak 
glancing blow arrival 01/1600UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind 
speed on UT day 29-May ranging from 310 to 368 km/s and is currently 
near 340 km/s. A mild enhancement in the solar wind parameters 
was observed after 29/0428UT. The peak total interplanetary field 
strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. A period of mild southward IMF Bz 
conditions was observed 29/1645-2145UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: G0

Estimated Indices 29 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11220111
      Cocos Island         3   11220110
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           5   12221122
      Learmonth            5   12220221
      Alice Springs        3   11220111
      Gingin               2   11210020
      Canberra             2   02120011
      Kennaook Cape Grim   1   01110011
      Hobart               1   11110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   01200120

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   3220 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May     8    G0
31 May    12    G0
01 Jun    16    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 29-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 30-May to 01-Jun. A weak glancing blow CME 
may arrive on 01-Jun from todays X1.4/CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-May were 
mostly normal, with HF communications impacted by fadeouts from 
increased solar flare activity. Mostly normal HF conditions are 
expected over 30-May to 01-Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 May   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      125
May      114
Jun      116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May   110    Near predicted monthly values
31 May   110    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on 
29 May and is current for 29-31 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 29-May were depressed 
15% to near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at 
Hobart during the predawn period. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values over 30-May to 01-Jun. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    18600 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au