[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 28 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 29 09:30:50 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
NOTE: This report may be reissued due to system maintenance
scheduled for 29-May.
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-May was at the R0 level,
with several high level C-class flares observed. There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3691
(N26E24, gamma-delta) is the largest region and has shown redistribution
of its spots over the UT day. Newly numbered AR3697 (S18E69,
beta-gamma) recently rotated over the eastern limb and is the
return of previous flare active region AR3664. AR3691 and AR3697
were responsible for all of the C-class flares observed. AR3695
(N27E37, beta) has exhibited mild spot growth over the 24-hour
period. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 29-31 May.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A southwest-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
28/0536UT. This CME is considered a farside event and therefore
not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 28-May declined,
ranging from 315 to 365 km/s and is currently near 320 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background
levels over 29-31 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: G0
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 3 22200001
Cocos Island 3 22201000
Darwin 6 23301012
Townsville 6 23301012
Learmonth 3 22201000
Alice Springs 4 23200001
Gingin 2 22200000
Canberra 3 22200001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 22200000
Hobart 2 22200000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 4 32300000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1123 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 8 G0
30 May 8 G0
31 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 28-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 29-31 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 28-May were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
29-31 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on
28 May and is current for 29-31 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 28-May were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 29-31 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 46300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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