[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 27 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 28 09:30:52 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.8 0708UT probable all Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-May was at the R3 level
due to an X2.8 flare at 27/0708UT from an as yet unnumbered region
beyond the eastern limb. This is returning region AR3664 which
produced several R3 level flares on its previous transit. There
are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3691 (N26E36, beta) is the
largest region on the disk, but has decreased in magnetic complexity
over the UT day. This region has shown some growth in its leader
spot, whilst its trailer spots have decayed. AR3693 (N06E23,
beta) has exhibited spot development over the 24-hour period.
AR3695 (N27E49, beta) has shown mild spot growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R2 level over 28-30 May, with a chance of R3 primarily
due to the flare potential of returning region AR3664. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. An east-directed CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 27/0724UT. This CME is associated
with the X2.8 flare from beyond the eastern limb. Modelling indicates
this CME does not contain an Earth-directed component. The solar
wind speed on UT day 27-May was mostly stable, ranging from 340
to 425 km/s and is currently near 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 28-30 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: G0
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11232001
Cocos Island 3 11222001
Darwin 5 21322011
Townsville 6 22232011
Learmonth 4 10322000
Alice Springs 4 11322000
Gingin 5 11332001
Canberra 3 11231000
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 11241000
Hobart 5 11141001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 7 00251000
Casey 8 32332011
Mawson 9 31------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2312 3241
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 8 G0
29 May 8 G0
30 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 28-30 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-May were
mostly normal, with normal to fair conditions at high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 28-30 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on
26 May and is current for 26-28 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 27-May were generally
near predicted monthly values. Northern Australia MUFs were 25%
depressed during local night hours. Spread F was observed at
Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 28-30 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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