[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 26 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 27 09:30:48 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-May was at R0. Solar region
AR3691(N25E56, beta-gamma) has shown growth in its northern leader
spots and some spot redistribution but has now lost its small
delta spot. This region has produced several C class flares in
the past 24 hours, the largest a C7.4 at 26/1706UT. Small solar
region AR3690(N17E40, beta-gamma) has developed very small trailer
spots of mixed magnetic polarity. Solar region AR3685(S14W59,
beta), a mostly stable bipolar region has shown a mix of growth
and decay of its small surrounding spots and smaller nearby AR3686(S08W48,
beta) trailer spots are now in decay. Small solar region AR3692(S10E08,
beta) has continued to grow. There are currently 6 numbered solar
regions and three small unnumbered regions at N27E66, N08E74
and N08E71. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
27-29 May, with a chance of R2. A large previously flare active
solar region (designated AR3664 on its previous disk transit)
appears to be returning and is just behind the southeast solar
limb, though the background GOES X-ray flux has yet to show an
upward trend. This regions evolution during its far side transit
is largely unknown and will become evident after the region rotates
onto the visible solar disk. No Earth directed CMEs have been
observed. A narrow southwest directed CME was observed in LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery at 26/2112UT appears associated with activity
on the southwest solar limb. The solar wind speed on UT day 26-May
was slightly variable, ranging from 340 to 460 km/s and is currently
near 349 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed may mildly increase over 27-28
May due to several mild coronal hole wind stream influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: G0
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 6 12113221
Cocos Island 4 12112120
Darwin 4 12112121
Townsville 7 12123222
Learmonth 5 12113220
Alice Springs 6 12113221
Gingin 5 12113120
Canberra 4 02013220
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 02013221
Hobart 5 12013220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 6 01014221
Casey 9 23322231
Mawson 18 34223335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2111 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 12 G0
28 May 8 G0
29 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-May. Conditions in the Antarctic region were
mostly G0 with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 27-29 May, with a slight chance
of G1 on 27-May due to possible weak coronal hole influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 26-May were
mostly normal, with mild degradations at middle to high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 27-29 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced during local day.
Depressed by 15-20% at times during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 May 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 May 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on
26 May and is current for 26-28 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 26-May were generally
near predicted monthly values. Darwin MUFs were 30% enhanced
during the local day. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra
during local night hours. Brief ionospheric equatorial scintillation
was observed at Niue 26/0832-0850UT. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 27-29 May.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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