[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 25 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 26 09:30:47 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-May was at R0. Solar region
AR3691(N26E63, beta-delta) is currently the largest region
on the visible solar disk. Some development may have occurred
in the leader spots of this region, with a small delta spot possibly
emerging in one of the northern leader spots within this medium
sized region. Current proximity to the eastern limb makes region
evolution assessment difficult. This region has been flare quiet
in the last 24 hours. Other regions of recent interest are AR3685(S14W46,
beta), which has shown further decline in surrounding smaller
spots, and smaller nearby AR3686(S08W34, beta-gamma) which has
shown redistribution in its trailer spots. Solar region AR3686
produced a minor C class flare. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one new unnumbered
region. The new unnumbered region is a small emerging group of
spots at S09E20. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 26-28 May, with a chance of R2. A large previously flare
active solar region (designated AR3664 on its previous disk transit)
may return to the southeast solar limb on 27-May. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A slow faint west directed CME was observed
in association with an erupting prominence on the western solar
limb from 25/0438UT in SDO304 imagery. The solar wind speed on
UT day 25-May was mostly steady, ranging from 346 to 444 km/s
and is currently near 404 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed may mildly increase
over 26-28 May due to several mild coronal hole wind stream influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: G0
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11200111
Cocos Island 2 11100111
Darwin 2 11200111
Townsville 3 21201111
Learmonth 4 12200212
Alice Springs 2 11200110
Gingin 3 11200212
Canberra 2 11100111
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 01100211
Hobart 2 01100211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 1 -1000111
Casey 7 23311211
Mawson 8 23202223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3323 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 12 G0
27 May 12 G0
28 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 25-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 26-28 May, with a slight chance of G1 on 26-27
May due to possible weak coronal hole influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 25-May were
mostly normal, with mild degradations at middle to high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 26-28 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 25-May were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 26-28 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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