[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 25 09:30:50 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0706UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0801UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 0824UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 2025UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-May was at the R1 level
due to several M1 flares from solar region AR3679(S12W85, beta)
and a slow rise and fall M1.3 flare from AR3685(S14W34,beta) at
25/0824UT. Solar region AR3679 is now rotating off disk. Solar
region AR3685 has shown decline in its smaller spots. Previously
flaring solar region AR3663 has returned to the solar northeast
limb and has yet to fully rotate into view, though may be smaller
on this transit, but is currently too close to the solar limb
to assess. Small solar region AR3689(S08E23, beta) has shown
slight growth. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. A filament eruption
and narrow plasma ejecta was observed in SDO304 imagery from
24/1048UT at N45W60. Solar activity is expected to be at the
R1 level over 25-27 May, with a chance of R2. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A northwest directed CME was observed
in LASCO C2 from 24/1100UT, associated with plasma motion/filament
eruption, has been modelled as an Earth miss. Faint northeast
CMEs were observed from 24/0812UT and 24/1325UT. The solar wind
speed on UT day 24-May was mostly stable, ranging from 345 to
426 km/s and is currently near 396 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed may mildly increase
over 25-26 May due to a northern hemisphere coronal hole, though
the high solar latitude of this hole is likely to reduce its
influence. Smaller coronal holes are visible in the southern
solar hemisphere crossing the solar central meridian, which may
increase wind speeds from 27-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: G0
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22132101
Cocos Island 4 22221001
Darwin 6 22132102
Townsville 6 22132111
Learmonth 6 22232101
Alice Springs 6 22232101
Gingin 4 22222100
Canberra 5 22132101
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 22132100
Hobart 4 12132100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island - --------
Casey 7 33321100
Mawson 16 35432113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1222 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 14 G0
26 May 12 G0
27 May 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 25-27 May, with a chance of G1 on 25-27 May due to possible
very weak CME and coronal hole influences.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 24-May were
mostly normal, with mild degradations at middle to high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 25-27 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 May 130 Near tp 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on
23 May and is current for 23-25 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 24-May were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 25-27 May. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 81600 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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