[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 23 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 24 09:30:47 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.2 0216UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 0429UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1008UT possible lower European
M2.5 1320UT possible lower European
M1.0 1558UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-May was at the R1 level
due to five M-class flares, the largest of which was an M4.2
flare at 23/0216UT produced by AR3679 (S12W73, beta-gamma). There
are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3679 appears to have shown spot development in its intermediate
spots, though limb foreshortening effects are now making analysis
of this region difficult. AR3684 (S06W48, beta-gamma) showed
some redistribution of its trailer spots. AR3686 (S08W08, gamma)
exhibited growth in its trailer spots over the UT day. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 24-26 May, with a chance
of R2. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
A filament eruption was observed, visible in GOES SUVI imagery
from 23/0124UT in the southeast solar quadrant. An associated
CME was observed in coronagraph imagery from 20/0200UT. Modelling
indicates this CME is not Earth-directed. A second filament eruption
was observed near S17E02 at 23/0635UT, however no significant
CME was observed associated with this event. Several other CMEs
were observed in coronagraph imagery associated with the flare
activity from AR3679. Modelling of these CMEs shows they are
unlikely to be geoeffective due to the regions far western location.
The solar wind speed on UT day 23-May was mostly stable, ranging
from 350 to 415 km/s and is currently near 375 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -9 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to mildly increase over 24-26 May due
to a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: G0
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Cocos Island 6 22111123
Darwin 4 11211022
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 7 22221123
Alice Springs 4 11111122
Gingin 7 11212233
Canberra 4 12111112
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 01112222
Hobart 5 01112223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 7 01123322
Casey 9 23322123
Mawson 26 12222347
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 16 G0, chance of G1
25 May 8 G0
26 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 23-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 24-26 May, with a chance of G1 on 24-May due to possible
influence of a coronal hole high speed wind stream from a northern
hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 23-May were
mostly normal, with mild degradations at middle to high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 24-26 May, with
fair conditions expected at high latitudes on 24-May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on
23 May and is current for 23-25 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 23-May were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 23-25 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 32800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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