[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 22 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 23 09:30:50 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0313UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.3 0404UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 1405UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 196/148
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 194/146 190/143 188/141
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-May was at the R1 level
due to three low level M-class flares, the largest of which was
an M2.3 flare at 22/0404UT from AR3683 (S23W93, beta). There
are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3679 (S12W60, beta-gamma-delta) is the most magnetically
complex region and has exhibited spot development in its intermediate
spots. AR3685 (S14W09, beta-gamma) has shown growth in its trailer
spots. AR3682 (N18W45, alpha) and AR3689 (S08E48, beta) have
shown minor spot growth over the UT day. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1 level over 23-25 May, with a chance of R2. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on UT day 22-May initially declined before increasing
in the second half of the UT day, ranging from 330 to 420 km/s
and is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to mildly increase over 23-25 May due to a northern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: G0
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 2 12100010
Darwin 1 11000011
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 20100010
Alice Springs 1 10000011
Gingin 1 21000000
Canberra 1 11000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11000001
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 23200011
Mawson 3 32100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2112 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 13 G0, slight chance of G1
24 May 13 G0, slight chance of G1
25 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 22-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 23-25 May, with a slight chance of G1 over
23-24 May due to a very weak glancing blow from a recent CME
and possible influence of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
from a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-May were
mostly normal, with mild degradations at middle to high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 23-25 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 May 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 22-May were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 23-25
May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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