[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 21 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 22 09:30:47 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1931UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 191/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 192/144 192/144
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-May was R1 due to an M1.9
flare from solar region AR3679(S12W44, beta-gamma). This region
has shown rapid growth in its trailer spots and smaller spots
have also emerged around the leader spot. A small more magnetically
complex delta spot may now be emerging within this regions trailer
spots. Solar region AR3685(S14E06, beta-gamma) showed decline
in its intermediate spots. Smaller solar region AR3684(S06W12,
beta) is growing. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
on the visible solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. A small solar filament with centre located
at S55E35 erupted at 21/1133UT in GONG H-alpha imagery. No solar
radiation storms were observed on 21-May. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 May. No solar radiation storms
are expected over 22-24 May. No Earth directed CMEs have been
observed. A narrow south southwest CME was observed from 21/0800UT
and could not be confidently correlated to on disk activity and
is not considered significant. A slow narrow south southeast
CME was observed from 21/1325UT possibly in association with
the small high solar latitude filament eruption. The solar wind
speed on UT day 21-May was mostly steady with a slight increasing
trend, ranging from 339 to 467 km/s and is currently near 390
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7
to -7 nT. A coronal hole is visible in the northern solar hemisphere
centered at N50W00, the high solar latitude of this hole is expected
to reduce the influence on the solar wind near the Earth. A mild
increase in solar wind speed may be observed from 23-24 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: G0
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 5 21122211
Cocos Island 3 11122110
Darwin 4 21122111
Townsville 5 21122211
Learmonth 6 22222211
Alice Springs 5 21122211
Gingin 5 22222210
Canberra 4 11022211
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11022210
Hobart 4 21022210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
Macquarie Island 4 10032200
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 15 33223315
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2331 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 6 G0
23 May 13 G0
24 May 13 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21-May. G0 conditions were generally observed
in the Antarctic region with a single G1 period observed at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally expected over 22-24 May,
there is a slight chance for G1 periods on 23-May due to a very
weak glancing blow from a recent CME and the slight influence
of a coronal hole wind stream on 24-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 21-May were
mostly normal, with mild degradations at middle to high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 22-24 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 May 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 May 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on
19 May and is current for 20-22 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 21-May were near predicted monthly values to
20% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during
local night hours. Enhanced Conditions were observed at Cocos
Island and Niue. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 22-24 May. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 57000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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