[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 30 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
ASWFC
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri May 31 09:30:44 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0713UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-May was at the R1 level
due to a M1 flare from solar region AR3691(N26W01, beta-gamma).
This region has now started to decay. Solar region AR3697(S18E44,
beta-gamma-delta) has been flare quiet over the past 24 hours
and has shown a mix of growth, decay and spot redistribution,
with growth in its magnetically complex leader spot, decay/redistribution
in its trailer spots and some intermediate penumbral development.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are small and are either
stable or in decay. A very small solar filament was observed
to erupt in Learmonth GONG H-Alpha imagery at S12E70 at 30/0830UT.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2, chance of R3 levels
over 31-May to 02-Jun due to AR3697, which remains magnetically
complex. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 30-May was steady, ranging from
323 to 372 km/s and is currently near 350 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -9 nT. A period of mild southward
IMF Bz conditions was observed 30/1040-2130UT. A small coronal
hole is visible in SDO211 imagery at N10W20.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: G0
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11111212
Cocos Island 3 01121211
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 6 12221222
Learmonth 7 11211323
Alice Springs 4 11211212
Gingin 7 11212323
Canberra 3 01011212
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 01011222
Hobart 3 01011212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 4 00012321
Casey 6 12121223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 1111 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 12 G0
01 Jun 18 G0,chance G1
02 Jun 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 30-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 31-May to 02-Jun. A weak glancing
blow CME may arrive on 01-Jun from a recent predominately eastward
CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 30-May were
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 31-May
to 02-Jun. Slightly degraded HF conditions may be experienced
on 01-Jun at middle to high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on
29 May and is current for 29-31 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 30-May were generally
near predicted monthly values, with northern Australian region
MUFs 20% depressed during local night hours. Spread F was observed
at Hobart, Canberra and Perth during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 31-May
to 02-Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 22600 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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