[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 May 24 issued 2338 UT on 15 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 16 09:38:05 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X3.4 0837UT probable all Mid East/Indian
X2.9 1438UT probable all South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 216/166
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 190/143 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-May was at the R3 level
due to an X3.4 flare which is most likely from AR3664 which is
now behind the south west solar limb and an X2.9 flare from the
south east limb. This could be the return of previously flare
active solar region AR3654. Spots became visible toward the end
of the UT day at solar latitude S13. These could be leader spots
and trailer spots may follow onto the solar disk, so magnetic
classification is not yet possible. There are currently twelve
numbered solar regions on the visible solar disk. The new region
is currently considered to be the most significant on the solar
disk, with most of the current on disk regions small to medium
in size. Solar region AR3679(S12E38, beta), AR3683(S23W03, beta)
and AR3676(S21W27, beta) showed some development, whilst solar
region AR3670(N19W37, beta) showed decline. All other regions
were mostly stable. A solar filament eruption was observed in
the GONG imagery located N30E30 from 15/0953UT. Solar flare activity
is expected to be at R2-R3 over 16-18 May due to the new region
rotating onto the disk. S1 conditions were observed on 15-May.
S1 conditions are expected to persist into 16-May with a declining
trend. S0 conditions are expected 17-18 May. No significantly
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A west limb CME was observed
with the X3 flare and has been modelled as an Earth miss. A south
east limb CME was observed in association with the X2.9 flare
and is currently being modelled and is considered unlikely to
be significantly geoeffective. A north north east CME was observed
from 15/1048UT in association with the filament eruption and
has been modelled as a weak arrival early in the UT day on 19-May.
The solar wind speed on UT day 15-May ranged from 558 to 438
km/s and is currently near 433 km/s. The solar wind parameters
contained offsets which made interpretation difficult. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -6 nT. The mild
in increase in the solar wind speed expected on 15-May from a
recent CME did not eventuate. A further increase is expected
on 16-May due to possible combined impacts from a pair of CMEs
observed on 14-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: G0
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11222022
Cocos Island 4 11222021
Darwin 5 11222022
Townsville 6 12222122
Learmonth 7 22322022
Alice Springs 5 12222022
Gingin 7 22222123
Canberra 4 11212021
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 11212122
Hobart 4 11212111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 7 11134111
Casey 11 34322122
Mawson 24 23532255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2112 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 20 G0-G1, chance G2
17 May 15 G0, chance G1
18 May 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 15-17 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 15-May. In the Antarctic region
conditions were predominately G0 with G1 periods observed at
Mawson. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at G0-G1 levels
with a chance of G2 on 16 May due to multiple possible impacts
from CMEs first observed on 13-14 May. G0 conditions, with a
chance of G1 are expected on 17-May as these effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 13 05 2024 1355UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 15-May were
mostly normal, with daylight HF communications liekly to have
been interrupted by fadeouts associated with the two R3 flares..
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 16-18 May at mid to
low latitudes. Fair to poor conditions are expected at high latitudes
on 16-May due to an ongoing solar radiation storm. Normal to
fair conditions are expected at high latitudes over 16-17 May
due to possible geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-May were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 16-18 May, with the chance of mild
depressions in the southern Australian region due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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