[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 15 09:30:48 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 0148UT possible lower West Pacific
X1.7 0209UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 1008UT possible lower European
X1.2 1255UT probable all European
X8.7 1651UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 220/170
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 195/147 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-May was at the R3 level
due to an X1.7 flare at 14/0209UT, an X1.2 flare at 14/1255UT
and an X8.7 flare at 14/1651UT. In addition, there was an M1.1
flare at 14/1008UT and an M4.5 flare at 14/1738UT. There are
currently twelve numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3664 (S20W87, beta-gamma-delta)
rotated off over the UT day, but was still responsible for all
three X flares observed on 14-May, flaring could still be observed
from this region over 15-May as it continues to rotate away.
AR3670 (N15W35, beta), AR3671 (N20W33, beta) and AR3679 (S12E49,
beta) showed spot development over the UT day but remain magnetically
simple and inactive. AR3680 (N18E49, alpha) is associated with
the M4.5 flare at 14/1738UT and is stable. All other sunspot
groups are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region has
developed on the solar disk at around S24E09 with beta magnetic
characteristics. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 15-May, with a chance of G3. R0-R1 conditions are expected
on 16-17 May once AR3664 has rotated further behind the western
limb. S2 solar radiation conditions were observed on 14-May from
14/0335UT to 14/0640UT. S1 conditions were observed for the remainder
of the UT day. S1 conditions are expected to persist into 15-May
with a declining trend. S0 conditions, with a chance of S1 are
expected on 16-May and S0 conditions are expected on 17-May.
Several CMEs were observed over the UT day. A west directed CME
from 14/0212UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery associated with the
X1.7 flare at 14/0209UT. This flare is not considered geoeffective.
An east directed CME from 14/0448UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
associated with an eruption behind the east limb at around S15
visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 14/0415UT. This CME
is considered a far side event. A northeast directed partial
halo CME from 14/1012UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery associated
with an eruption on the disk at around N25E38 from 14/0935UT
in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. There is also movement
in the corona behind the northeastern limb from 14/0937UT visible
in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. Modelling indicates this CME presents
a chance of an impact on 16-May 2300UT +/- 12 hours. A west directed
CME from 14/1312UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery associated with
the X1.2 flare at 14/1255UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective.
A fast, west directed CME from 14/1723UT in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery associated with the X8.7 flare at 14/1651UT. An eruption
is visible from 14/1656UT in SDO imagery. Modelling suggests
this CME presents a chance of a glancing impact at 16/1700UT.
A fast, east directed CME from 14/1753UT in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery. This event is associated with an eruption on the disk
at around N15E70 visible from 14/1725UT in SDO, H-Alpha and GOES
SUVI imagery and associated with the M4.5 flare at 14/1738UT.
Modelling suggests this CME will pass behind the Earth. The solar
wind was elevated on UT day 14-May. The solar wind speed ranged
from 598 to 478 km/s and is currently near 543 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. An increase
in the solar wind speed is expected on 15-May due to an impact
from a CME first observed on 13-May. A further increase is expected
on 16-May due to possible combined impacts from a pair of CMEs
observed on 14-May. The solar wind is expected to be elevated
on 17-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: G0
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 4 12221111
Cocos Island 3 12111110
Darwin 4 21221111
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 5 22222120
Alice Springs 4 12221111
Gingin 4 21221020
Canberra 2 12111001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11111010
Hobart 2 11112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 3 11023000
Casey 9 23332121
Mawson 8 12223231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 32 6643 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 20 G0-G1, chance G2
16 May 20 G0-G1, chance G2
17 May 15 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-May. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at G0-G1 levels with a chance of G2 over 15-16
May due to multiple possible impacts from CMEs first observed
on 13-14 May. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected
on 17-May as these effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 13 05 2024 1355UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
16 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 14-May were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 15-17
May at mid to low latitudes. Poor conditions are expected at
high latitudes on 15-May due to an ongoing solar radiation storm.
Normal to fair conditions are expected at high latitudes over
16-17 May due to possible geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 126 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on
13 May and is current for 13-15 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 14-May were mostly near predicted monthly values.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17
May, with the chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian
region due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 646 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 48300 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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