[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 14 09:30:46 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 12/2206UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 12/2310UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 0133UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 0820UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M4.9 0933UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M6.6 0944UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1747UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 2159UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 215/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R0-R1
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 200/152 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-May was at the R2 level
due to a long duration M6.6 flare at 13/0944UT. Several M-class
flares at the R1 level were also observed during the UT day.
AR3664 (S20W86, beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest, most complex
and most active sunspot region on the solar disk. This region
was responsible for the vast majority of the M-class flares on
13-May. AR366 has partially rotated off the solar disk and is
expected to rotate off completely over 14-15 May. AR3670 (N14W22,
beta), AR2676 (S21W03, beta), AR3679 (S09E60, beta) and newly
numbered region AR3681 (S09W17, beta) all showed spot development
over the UT day. AR3674 (S13E39, beta) was stable, but was associated
with an M4.5 flare at around 13/1046UT mostly obscured by the
declining background of the long duration M6.6 flare at 13/0944UT.
All other sunspot groups are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 14-15 May, with
a chance of G3. R0-R1 conditions are expected on 16-May once
AR3664 has rotated completely off the solar disk. S1 solar radiation
conditions were observed from 13/1355UT following the long duration
M6.6 flare at 13/0944UT. S1 conditions are expected to persist
into 14-May before declining below the S1 level by 15-16 May.
A fast, partial halo CME is visible in SOHO imagery from 13/0924UT
associated with the long duration M6.6 flare at 13/0944UT. Modelling
indicates a component of this CME will impact Earth on 15-May
at 0400UT +/- 12 hours. Another on disk eruption is visible from
13/1015UT in H-Alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery, associated with
the M4.5 flare produced by AR3674 at around 13/1046UT. No associated
CME is visible in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
was in decline on UT day 14-May as remaining CME impact effects
waned. The solar wind speed ranged from 850 to 526 km/s and is
currently near 575 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue
to decline towards background levels over 14-May. An increase
is expected on 15-May due to an anticipated impact from a CME
first observed on 13-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: G0
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 11 34332211
Cocos Island 9 33332210
Darwin 11 33333212
Townsville 13 34333222
Learmonth 13 34333221
Alice Springs 12 34332212
Gingin 11 34332210
Canberra 11 34332112
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 3433-131
Hobart 11 34332111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 20 45353121
Casey 12 44332111
Mawson 29 46544312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 86 (Minor storm)
Alice Springs 52 (Unsettled)
Gingin NA
Canberra 158 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 31
Planetary 54 6844 2346
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 16 G0, chance G1
15 May 35 G1-G2, chance G3
16 May 30 G1-G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-May, with G1-G2 geomagnetic periods observed
in the Antarctic region. Planetary conditions were at the G1
level for the first two periods of the UT-day followed by G0
level activity. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at the
G0 level, with a chance of G1 on 14-May due to a mix of waning
CME impact effects and the chance of a weak CME impact. G1-G2
activity is expected on 15-May, with a chance of G3 due to an
anticipated impact from a fast CME first observed on 13-May.
G1-G2 conditions are expected on 16-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0210UT 11/05, Ended at 1125UT 12/05
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 13 05 2024 1355UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0155UT 11/05, Ended at 0010UT 12/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
15 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 13-May were
mostly normal in the southern hemisphere, but were poor to fair
in the northern hemisphere at all latitudes. Poor conditions
are expected at high latitudes on 14-May due to absorption effects
from ongoing S1 solar radiation conditions. Normal to fair conditions
are expected at other latitudes on 14-May. Mostly fair to poor
conditions are expected on 15-16 May due to expected geomagnetic
activity from a CME impact early on 15-May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on
13 May and is current for 13-15 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13-May were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced, with enhancements observed predominantly in the
northern Australian region. Sporadic E was observed at Canberra,
Perth, Brisbane, Learmonth and Norfolk Island at varying times
during the UT-day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced on 14-May. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values on 15-16 May, with the chance of depressions
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are
expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 875 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 396000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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