[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 12 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 13 09:30:47 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.2 0045UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.4 0552UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.6 1241UT possible lower European
M1.0 1347UT possible lower European
M1.5 1356UT possible lower European
X1.0 1626UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M4.8 2032UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 2206UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2310UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 222/172
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 215/165 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-May was at the R3 level
due an X1 flare from the large solar region AR3664(S19W67, beta-gamma-delta).
This region also produced the M4.8, M3.2, M2.4 and two M1 flares
and is now approaching the south west solar limb. An R1(M1.0)
flare was from solar region AR3679(S09E78, beta) a very small
region that has recently rotated onto the solar disk. Small solar
regions AR3676(S12E19, beta-gamma) and AR3675(S15W37, beta) have
shown rapid growth in the past 24 hours. Small solar region AR3671(N23W05,
beta) has shown some growth. There are currently twelve numbered
regions on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3
levels over 13-14 May, with a decline in activity likely on 15-May
to R1-R2. Solar flare activity is expected to become less frequent
after the departure of AR3664. The GOES solar proton flux has
declined and is now at S0. Solar radiation storm conditions are
expected to be at S0, with the chance of S1 over 13-14 May. No
significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last
24 hours. In LASCO C2 imagery a southwest directed CME was observed
from 12/0348UT which could not be correlated with today's flare
activity and is currently considered a far side event. An extremely
faint and narrow west directed CME is visible from 12/1136UT
and is not considered significant. The solar wind environment
on 12-May overall has declined from its recently extremely enhanced
state. A weak shock was observed at 12/0856UT which very mildly
enhanced the interplanetary magnetic field post shock arrival.
This shock was weaker than expected. There is the possibility
of a CME arrival over the next 24-48 hours, but confidence is
now low on any significant CME arrival. The ACE EPAM low energy
ion channel which can be used as a precursor for CME arrival
is currently not showing a steady increasing trend. The solar
ranged from 740 to 990 km/s and is currently near 820 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -6 nT,
with Bz mildly southward during the interval 12/1941-2154UT.
Two small coronal holes are visible in the northwest and southeast
solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: G2
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 26 56241234
Cocos Island 22 55341124
Darwin 24 56241223
Townsville 29 66241224
Learmonth 34 66352234
Alice Springs 29 56251234
Gingin 31 66341234
Canberra 25 56241224
Kennaook Cape Grim 26 56241234
Hobart 30 56341235
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 53 67462435
Casey 45 66343536
Mawson 123 98553376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 55 (Unsettled)
Townsville 93 (Minor storm)
Learmonth 91 (Minor storm)
Alice Springs 71 (Active)
Gingin 167 (Severe storm)
Canberra 184 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 63
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 9999 9987
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 25 G1, chance G2
14 May 16 G0, chance G1
15 May 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 12 May and
is current for 12-13 May. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 12-May, with G2-G5 geomagnetic
periods observed in the Antarctic region. Planetary conditions
were at G3 early on the UT day 11/00-06UT, then conditions declined
to G0. The anticipated geomagnetic activity for 12-May did not
eventuate, with the geomagnetic activity early in the UT day
more due to declining storm activity from the previous UT day.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to G1, with a chance for isolated
G2 periods for 13-May. There is a chance for a weak CME impact
over 13-14 May, and mild activity induced by coronal hole wind
streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-May were
generally normal for low and middle latitudes. Low latitude ionospheric
scintillation was observed at times on 11-May. High latitudes
were impacted by absorption and geomagnetic storm effects but
are now improving. Improved HF conditions are expected for 13-May.
HF fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 120% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Absorption observed at times.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-May were
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. Spread F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation
was observed at Darwin, Weipa and Niue 11/1139-2040UT. A shortwave
fadeout was observed in the Australian region 11/0101-0405UT.
MUFs are now expected to be near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced over 13-15 May. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 739 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 214000 K Bz: -16 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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