[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 17 09:30:47 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0804UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 207/158
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 190/143 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-May was at the R1 level
due to an M1.0 flare from new solar region AR3685(S13E66, beta-gamma).
This region produced the recent X2 flare. There is another smaller
new region rotating onto the solar disk just to the north east
of AR3685. Another region of note, AR3679(S12E22, beta-gamma)
produced several C class flares over the last 24 hours. This
region as shown a mix of development and decay and has grown
in longitudinal extent. Solar regions AR3674(S13W00, beta) and
AR3672(N18W35, beta) contributed to the low level C class flare
activity. There are currently thirteen numbered solar regions
on the visible solar disk. Solar region AR3683(S23W14, beta)
is currently growing. All other regions were mostly stable or
in decline. A solar filament eruption was observed in the GONG
imagery from 16/1513-1730UT located at S03W33-N10W42. Associated
plasma motion in SDO171/193 was very localised and slight suggesting
a weaker eruption. Solar flare activity is expected to be at
R1-R2, chance R3 over 17-19 May. Solar radiation conditions are
now S0. S0 conditions are expected 17-19 May. No significantly
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A north west CME is visible
in LASCO C2 from 16/1800UT. Data gaps in both space based coronagraphs
(STERO-A and LASCO) restricted analysis. An analysis of the north
west CME was conducted assuming pairing with the the filament
eruption, though confidence is low due to the weak on disk plasma
motion. The modelling shows a weak CME arrival is possible 20/1200UT
+/- 12 hours. The solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced
due to the indistinct transient of a weak CME. The solar wind
speed on UT day 16-May ranged from 529 to 381 km/s and is currently
near 384 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+14 to -13 nT. The IMF Bz was orientated southward during the
interval 16/0445-0935UT. No coronal holes are visible near the
solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: G1
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 15 23543201
Cocos Island 10 13433210
Darwin 16 23543212
Townsville 16 23543212
Learmonth 16 23544210
Alice Springs 15 23543201
Gingin 10 23433200
Canberra 12 23443101
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 23553101
Hobart 17 23553100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 24 24654110
Casey 12 34432111
Mawson 19 34544211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 1232 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 15 G0, chance G1
18 May 12 G0
19 May 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 15-17 May. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 16-May. In the Antarctic region
conditions were G0 at Casey, with a G1 period observed at Mawson
and G1-G2 periods observed at Macquarie Island. The mild increase
in geomagnetic activity was due to a weak CME transient. G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 17-May. G0 conditions are
expected on 18-19 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1355UT 13/05, Ended at 1410UT 16/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-May were
mostly normal, with some degradation at high latitudes. Mostly
normal conditions are expected over 17-19 May, with mild degradation
possible at high latitudes on 17-May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on
16 May and is current for 16-18 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16-May were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Enhanced
MUFs were observed at Niue. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 17-19 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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