[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 May 24 issued 2332 UT on 09 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 10 09:32:17 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.0 0317UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.5 0332UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X2.2 0913UT probable all Mid East/Indian
X1.1 1744UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 2121UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.7 2241UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 233/183
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 225/175 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-May was at the R3 level
due to two X-class flares. The strongest flare was an X2.2 at
09/0913UT from AR3664 (S20W31, beta-gamma-delta). An X1.1 flare
was observed at 09/1744UT, also produced by AR3664. Several other
flares at R1-R2 levels were observed over the UT day. There are
currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3664 is the largest and most magnetically complex region
and has exhibited spot development in its trailer spots over
the UT day. This region has continued to grow in size and maintains
multiple delta spots in its current configuration. AR3663 (N25W82,
beta) appeared to show decay in its intermediate spots and is
now rotating over the western limb. AR3666 (N07W65, beta) has
developed a small trailer spot. Newly numbered regions AR3671
(N20E34, beta) and AR3672 (N18E58, beta) both recently appeared
on the solar disk and have shown spot growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R2-R3 levels over 10-12 May. A mild enhancement in the
proton flux was observed on 09-May, with conditions remaining
at S0. S0-S1 solar radiation conditions are expected over 10-12
May. A halo CME was observed late on 08-May, visible in LASCO
C2 coronagraph imagery from 08/2224UT. This CME is likely associated
with the X1.0 flare at 08/2140UT from AR3664. Modelling indicates
this CME is Earth-directed and is the third successive halo CME
to be geoeffective. On UT day 09-May a fourth halo CME was observed,
visible in coronagraph imagery from 09/0936UT. This CME is associated
with the aforementioned X2.2 flare from AR3664, with modelling
indicating this CME is also Earth-directed. The first three halo
CMEs are expected to merge into a combined front, estimated to
arrive at Earth at 10/1000UT +/- 10 hours. The fourth halo CME
is estimated to arrive later in the UT day at 10/1700UT. A partial
halo CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
from 09/1852UT. Analysis of this CME is ongoing. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-May
mildly declined, ranging from 410 to 480 km/s and is currently
near 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -5 nT. A small northern hemisphere coronal hole is now
in the western hemisphere and may influence the solar wind speed
over the coming days. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
over 10-12 May due to the arrival of four halo CMEs first observed
over 08-09 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: G0
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11110021
Cocos Island 2 11120011
Darwin 3 12110021
Townsville 3 11110121
Learmonth 3 12110022
Alice Springs 2 11100021
Gingin 3 12010022
Canberra 2 02000111
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11000121
Hobart 2 01000121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 7 24211121
Mawson 11 14111234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 6 1112 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 80 G4
11 May 50 G3, chance of G4
12 May 18 G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 9 May and
is current for 10-12 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 09-May. G4
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-May due to the arrival
of four halo CMEs first observed over 08-09 May. G3 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 11-May, with a chance of G4 due to
ongoing CME effects. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
12-May as CME effects abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Poor Poor Poor
11 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
12 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 09-May were
generally normal, though with frequent fadeouts impacting lower
HF frequencies. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be fair to poor over 10-12 May due to expected geomagnetic
activity. Frequent shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 70 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 May 50 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
12 May 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 49 was issued
on 9 May and is current for 10-12 May. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 50 was issued on 9 May and is current for 10-12 May.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-May were near
predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be depressed by
20-40% over 10-12 May due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Frequent shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 74600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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