[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 May 24 issued 2331 UT on 08 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 9 09:31:10 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.0 0141UT probable all West Pacific
X1.0 0509UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M7.9 1753UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
X1.0 2141UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 227/177
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 225/175 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-May was at the R3 level
due to three X1.0 flares at 08/0141UT, 08/0509UT and 08/2141UT.
The first of these flares was produced by AR3663 (N25W69, beta),
whilst the latter two were produced by AR3664 (S20W19, beta-gamma-delta).
Several other flares at R1-R2 levels were observed over the UT
day. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR3664 is the largest and most magnetically
complex region and has exhibited spot development over the UT
day, particularly in its trailer spots. AR3663 has shown decay
in its intermediate spots and is now approaching the western
limb. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R2-R3 levels over 09-11 May.
S0 solar radiation conditions are expected over 09-11 May, with
a chance of S1. A halo CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery from 08/0536UT. This CME is associated with
the X1.0 flare at 08/0509UT from AR3664. Modelling indicates
this CME is Earth-directed, with an estimated arrival at Earth
on 10-May. A second halo CME was observed, visible in coronagraph
imagery from 08/1224UT. This CME is associated with the M8.6
flare at 08/1204UT from AR3663. Modelling indicates this CME
will interact with the first halo CME due to its higher velocity.
The estimated arrival time for both CMEs is 10:00UT on 10-May
+/- 10 hours. A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha
imagery from 08/1807UT near N15E21. A subsequent associated CME
was observed in coronagraph imagery from 08/1912UT. Modelling
indicates this CME may have a small Earth-directed component,
with a glancing impact possible on 11-May. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 08-May
was mildly declined, ranging from 350 to 445 km/s and is currently
near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 4 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4 to -4 nT. A small northern hemisphere coronal hole is currently
crossing the central meridian and may influence the solar wind
speed over the coming days. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 09-11 May due to the arrival of two halo CMEs
on 10-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: G0
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 3 21221100
Cocos Island 2 21111100
Darwin 4 21221101
Townsville 4 21221102
Learmonth 4 22221100
Alice Springs 2 11211100
Gingin 3 21211100
Canberra 3 11220101
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11220100
Hobart 3 11221100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 1 10120000
Casey 7 23321111
Mawson 9 24322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 10 G0
10 May 36 G2, chance of G3
11 May 20 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 08-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 09-May. G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 10-May, with a chance of G3 due to the arrival of two halo
CMEs first observed on 08-May. G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 11-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
11 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-May were
generally normal, though with frequent fadeouts impacting lower
HF frequencies. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be normal to fair over 09-11 May, with fair to poor conditions
expected on 10-May due to expected geomagnetic activity. Frequent
shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 125
May 114
Jun 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on
6 May and is current for 7-9 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-May were near predicted monthly values. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 09-11 May. Frequent
shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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